Market SeasonalityFree alerts

Rates

3 markets. The October columns show each market's average move and pattern rating this month.

MarketLastDay1 monthYear to dateOct averageOct pattern
US 10-year Treasury yield5.31%+3 bp+53 bp+113 bp-1 bp 52% upno clear pattern
US 2-year Treasury yield4.84%+1 bp+47 bp+137 bp-5 bp 42% upno clear pattern
German 10-year Bund yield3.18% (2026-08)+11 bp+1 bp 47% upno clear pattern

Latest insights

A 29,000-job September meets a Fed that just restarted hiking

The Fed's first hike of a new cycle came just over two weeks before a weak payrolls print. History after first hikes is mixed for stocks over a month.

Oct 6S&P 500, US 2-year Treasury yield, US 10-year Treasury yield, US dollar index (DXY)

Yields at 24-year highs while the Nasdaq keeps setting records

The 30-year yield closed at its highest in over 24 years on the same day the Nasdaq printed its 23rd record of 2026.

Oct 6Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, US 10-year Treasury yield, Nvidia

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.