US 10-year Treasury yield: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, US 10-year Treasury yield has averaged -1 bp and risen in 52% of 64 years (1962 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as no clear pattern.
Last close 5.31% on October 5, 2026: +3 bp on the day, +113 bp this year, +2 bp so far in October.
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +1 bp | +2 bp | 53% | +1 bp | +80 bp | -57 bp | 64 | no clear pattern |
| February | +4 bp | +2 bp | 55% | +2 bp | +159 bp | -95 bp | 65 | no clear pattern |
| March | +4 bp | +4 bp | 57% | -2 bp | +62 bp | -74 bp | 65 | no clear pattern |
| April | +7 bp | +2 bp | 57% | +11 bp | +98 bp | -188 bp | 65 | weak |
| May | -1 bp | +1 bp | 55% | -4 bp | +109 bp | -113 bp | 65 | no clear pattern |
| June | -2 bp | -3 bp | 46% | -2 bp | +73 bp | -70 bp | 65 | no clear pattern |
| July | +1 bp | 0 bp | 48% | -2 bp | +95 bp | -93 bp | 65 | no clear pattern |
| August | -4 bp | -4 bp | 48% | -3 bp | +79 bp | -87 bp | 65 | no clear pattern |
| September | -1 bp | +1 bp | 51% | +23 bp | +68 bp | -108 bp | 65 | no clear pattern |
| October | -1 bp | +2 bp | 52% | +16 bp | +128 bp | -121 bp | 64 | no clear pattern |
| November | -7 bp | -7 bp | 44% | -8 bp | +53 bp | -150 bp | 64 | weak |
| December | 0 bp | 0 bp | 50% | +3 bp | +85 bp | -68 bp | 64 | no clear pattern |
What drives US 10-year Treasury yield
- Expected Fed policy over the next decade plus a term premium for inflation and fiscal risk.
- Treasury supply, auction results and foreign demand.
- Moves here reset the discount rate for stocks, mortgages and the dollar.
Sell in May for US 10-year Treasury yield
From 1963 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +10 bp and the May to October half -9 bp. The winter half did better in 62% of 63 years. Compare all markets.
How US 10-year Treasury yield reacted to events
Average move from the close before each event. Day 1 is the close on the event day.
| Event | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed hikes | 52 | -2 bp | +1 bp | +2 bp | 41% |
| Fed cuts | 39 | 0 bp | +1 bp | +2 bp | 56% |
| First Fed hike of a cycle | 7 | +1 bp | +3 bp | +15 bp | 50% |
| First Fed cut of a cycle | 6 | +2 bp | -9 bp | +9 bp | 83% |
| Fed cuts of 50 bp or more | 18 | +3 bp | +3 bp | +6 bp | 67% |
| ECB hikes | 31 | 0 bp | +3 bp | +4 bp | 53% |
| ECB cuts | 30 | 0 bp | +6 bp | +6 bp | 53% |
| Tariff escalation headlines | 8 | -6 bp | -7 bp | -13 bp | 50% |
Year by year
Latest insights on US 10-year Treasury yield
A 29,000-job September meets a Fed that just restarted hiking
The Fed's first hike of a new cycle came just over two weeks before a weak payrolls print. History after first hikes is mixed for stocks over a month.
Yields at 24-year highs while the Nasdaq keeps setting records
The 30-year yield closed at its highest in over 24 years on the same day the Nasdaq printed its 23rd record of 2026.
Questions
What is the best month for US 10-year Treasury yield?
Since 1962, April has had the highest average move for US 10-year Treasury yield at +7 bp, rising in 57% of 65 years. March has the highest share of positive years (57%).
What is the worst month for US 10-year Treasury yield?
November has had the weakest average move at -7 bp, rising in 44% of 64 years.
How does US 10-year Treasury yield usually do in October?
US 10-year Treasury yield has averaged -1 bp in October (median +2 bp), rising in 52% of 64 years. We rate the pattern as no clear pattern.
Get alerts for US 10-year Treasury yield
Free during launch. Pick your markets and topics; we email when something relevant happens, with sources and history attached.
Build a free watchlistNot investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.