US 2-year Treasury yield: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, US 2-year Treasury yield has averaged -5 bp and risen in 42% of 50 years (1976 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as no clear pattern.
Last close 4.84% on October 5, 2026: +1 bp on the day, +137 bp this year, -4 bp so far in October.
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | -1 bp | -1 bp | 46% | +2 bp | +84 bp | -88 bp | 50 | no clear pattern |
| February | +13 bp | +6 bp | 60% | +6 bp | +298 bp | -52 bp | 50 | moderate |
| March | +4 bp | +2 bp | 54% | -4 bp | +84 bp | -91 bp | 50 | no clear pattern |
| April | 0 bp | +1 bp | 50% | +9 bp | +167 bp | -382 bp | 50 | no clear pattern |
| May | -1 bp | -1 bp | 46% | 0 bp | +111 bp | -156 bp | 50 | no clear pattern |
| June | -2 bp | -1 bp | 46% | +8 bp | +104 bp | -74 bp | 50 | no clear pattern |
| July | -2 bp | -2 bp | 45% | +1 bp | +118 bp | -149 bp | 51 | no clear pattern |
| August | 0 bp | -3 bp | 41% | -6 bp | +164 bp | -118 bp | 51 | no clear pattern |
| September | -3 bp | -3 bp | 43% | +18 bp | +77 bp | -78 bp | 51 | no clear pattern |
| October | -5 bp | -3 bp | 42% | +12 bp | +196 bp | -210 bp | 50 | no clear pattern |
| November | -4 bp | -1 bp | 48% | -1 bp | +105 bp | -223 bp | 50 | no clear pattern |
| December | -2 bp | +2 bp | 52% | -3 bp | +127 bp | -107 bp | 50 | no clear pattern |
What drives US 2-year Treasury yield
- The market's view of Fed policy over the next two years; reacts most to rate decisions and jobs data.
Sell in May for US 2-year Treasury yield
From 1977 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +9 bp and the May to October half -14 bp. The winter half did better in 61% of 49 years. Compare all markets.
How US 2-year Treasury yield reacted to events
Average move from the close before each event. Day 1 is the close on the event day.
| Event | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed hikes | 52 | 0 bp | +4 bp | +9 bp | 61% |
| Fed cuts | 39 | -2 bp | -5 bp | -10 bp | 28% |
| First Fed hike of a cycle | 7 | +1 bp | +5 bp | +17 bp | 50% |
| First Fed cut of a cycle | 6 | -3 bp | -20 bp | -7 bp | 50% |
| Fed cuts of 50 bp or more | 18 | -2 bp | -7 bp | -9 bp | 33% |
| ECB hikes | 31 | -1 bp | +4 bp | +6 bp | 57% |
| ECB cuts | 30 | -2 bp | +1 bp | -1 bp | 60% |
Year by year
Latest insights on US 2-year Treasury yield
A 29,000-job September meets a Fed that just restarted hiking
The Fed's first hike of a new cycle came just over two weeks before a weak payrolls print. History after first hikes is mixed for stocks over a month.
Questions
What is the best month for US 2-year Treasury yield?
Since 1976, February has had the highest average move for US 2-year Treasury yield at +13 bp, rising in 60% of 50 years. February has the highest share of positive years (60%).
What is the worst month for US 2-year Treasury yield?
October has had the weakest average move at -5 bp, rising in 42% of 50 years.
How does US 2-year Treasury yield usually do in October?
US 2-year Treasury yield has averaged -5 bp in October (median -3 bp), rising in 42% of 50 years. We rate the pattern as no clear pattern.
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