BIST 100: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, BIST 100 has averaged +4.28% and risen in 62% of 29 years (1997 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as moderate.
Last close 12,374.30 on October 6, 2026: -0.56% on the day, +9.88% this year, +3.57% so far in October.
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +3.37% | +3.64% | 69% | +6.86% | +22.88% | -23.12% | 29 | strong |
| February | +0.58% | +0.44% | 52% | -0.36% | +51.50% | -17.72% | 29 | no clear pattern |
| March | -0.10% | -0.16% | 48% | -3.35% | +17.05% | -18.14% | 29 | no clear pattern |
| April | +7.43% | +4.28% | 76% | +3.37% | +54.16% | -10.74% | 29 | strong |
| May | -2.67% | -3.48% | 34% | +0.86% | +10.59% | -15.62% | 29 | moderate |
| June | +0.82% | +0.35% | 55% | +3.96% | +17.85% | -12.21% | 29 | no clear pattern |
| July | +4.70% | +4.67% | 66% | +4.90% | +25.31% | -11.51% | 29 | strong |
| August | -1.28% | -0.09% | 50% | +3.01% | +22.33% | -39.03% | 30 | no clear pattern |
| September | +1.44% | +0.48% | 53% | -0.36% | +30.96% | -22.81% | 30 | no clear pattern |
| October | +4.28% | +4.54% | 62% | +0.57% | +29.15% | -22.80% | 29 | moderate |
| November | +3.98% | +0.73% | 52% | +7.64% | +29.74% | -35.39% | 29 | weak |
| December | +7.13% | +4.43% | 76% | +4.67% | +79.78% | -22.03% | 29 | strong |
What drives BIST 100
- Turkey's benchmark in lira terms; high inflation lifts nominal prices, so returns in lira overstate real gains.
- Central bank policy, inflation data and foreign inflows drive banks, the largest sector.
Sell in May for BIST 100
From 1998 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +24.21% and the May to October half +7.59%. The winter half did better in 61% of 28 years. Compare all markets.
Year by year
Latest insights on BIST 100
Questions
What is the best month for BIST 100?
Since 1997, April has had the highest average move for BIST 100 at +7.43%, rising in 76% of 29 years. April has the highest share of positive years (76%).
What is the worst month for BIST 100?
May has had the weakest average move at -2.67%, rising in 34% of 29 years.
How does BIST 100 usually do in October?
BIST 100 has averaged +4.28% in October (median +4.54%), rising in 62% of 29 years. We rate the pattern as moderate.
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