US dollar index (DXY): seasonality, event history and insights
In October, US dollar index (DXY) has averaged -0.01% and risen in 45% of 55 years (1971 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as no clear pattern.
Last close 101.83 on October 6, 2026: -0.33% on the day, +3.61% this year, +0.37% so far in October.
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +0.90% | +0.83% | 62% | -0.49% | +5.77% | -3.59% | 55 | strong |
| February | -0.07% | +0.07% | 52% | +0.87% | +5.04% | -8.15% | 56 | no clear pattern |
| March | +0.22% | +0.26% | 52% | +0.24% | +9.44% | -7.00% | 56 | no clear pattern |
| April | -0.38% | -0.31% | 43% | -0.23% | +4.73% | -5.85% | 56 | no clear pattern |
| May | +0.51% | +0.56% | 57% | -0.09% | +5.63% | -4.94% | 56 | weak |
| June | -0.14% | -0.31% | 45% | +0.20% | +5.54% | -5.10% | 56 | no clear pattern |
| July | -0.19% | -0.04% | 48% | -0.45% | +5.62% | -6.06% | 56 | no clear pattern |
| August | +0.16% | -0.07% | 48% | -0.06% | +5.67% | -3.70% | 56 | no clear pattern |
| September | -0.28% | -0.50% | 45% | +1.13% | +5.96% | -5.38% | 56 | no clear pattern |
| October | -0.01% | -0.13% | 45% | +0.99% | +8.05% | -6.48% | 55 | no clear pattern |
| November | +0.21% | +0.24% | 53% | -0.44% | +8.61% | -5.00% | 55 | no clear pattern |
| December | -0.88% | -0.79% | 36% | -0.85% | +3.98% | -6.02% | 55 | strong |
What drives US dollar index (DXY)
- The dollar against six major currencies; rises with US yields and in global risk-off episodes.
- Year-end funding demand has historically supported the dollar in December.
Sell in May for US dollar index (DXY)
From 1972 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +0.02% and the May to October half +0.09%. The winter half did better in 57% of 54 years. Compare all markets.
How US dollar index (DXY) reacted to events
Average move from the close before each event. Day 1 is the close on the event day.
| Event | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed hikes | 52 | -0.11% | +0.05% | -0.10% | 53% |
| Fed cuts | 39 | -0.14% | +0.04% | +0.46% | 64% |
| First Fed hike of a cycle | 7 | +0.13% | +0.11% | 0.00% | 67% |
| First Fed cut of a cycle | 6 | +0.08% | -0.30% | +0.25% | 50% |
| Fed cuts of 50 bp or more | 18 | -0.31% | -0.20% | +0.80% | 72% |
| ECB hikes | 31 | +0.27% | +0.49% | +0.47% | 60% |
| ECB cuts | 30 | -0.19% | +0.19% | +0.44% | 57% |
| Tariff escalation headlines | 8 | -0.23% | -0.40% | -0.54% | 38% |
| Oil supply cuts (OPEC+ and disruptions) | 5 | +0.26% | +0.60% | +0.70% | 80% |
Year by year
Latest insights on US dollar index (DXY)
A 29,000-job September meets a Fed that just restarted hiking
The Fed's first hike of a new cycle came just over two weeks before a weak payrolls print. History after first hikes is mixed for stocks over a month.
Questions
What is the best month for US dollar index (DXY)?
Since 1971, January has had the highest average move for US dollar index (DXY) at +0.90%, rising in 62% of 55 years. January has the highest share of positive years (62%).
What is the worst month for US dollar index (DXY)?
December has had the weakest average move at -0.88%, rising in 36% of 55 years.
How does US dollar index (DXY) usually do in October?
US dollar index (DXY) has averaged -0.01% in October (median -0.13%), rising in 45% of 55 years. We rate the pattern as no clear pattern.
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