Gold: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, Gold has averaged +0.13% and risen in 50% of 26 years (2000 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as no clear pattern.
Last close 4,187.10 on October 6, 2026: +0.73% on the day, -3.55% this year, +0.01% so far in October.
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +2.95% | +3.21% | 65% | +3.10% | +10.98% | -6.14% | 26 | strong |
| February | +1.23% | +0.87% | 58% | +0.70% | +10.60% | -6.41% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| March | +0.21% | -0.44% | 46% | +1.49% | +9.63% | -11.44% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| April | +1.28% | +1.49% | 62% | +1.91% | +12.03% | -9.43% | 26 | weak |
| May | +0.27% | -0.16% | 50% | +0.65% | +9.89% | -6.06% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| June | -0.87% | -1.63% | 42% | -1.68% | +8.53% | -12.12% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| July | +0.93% | +1.43% | 58% | +1.70% | +9.01% | -6.54% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| August | +2.50% | +3.06% | 73% | +2.74% | +12.30% | -9.26% | 26 | strong |
| September | +0.43% | -0.73% | 48% | -1.39% | +10.37% | -11.38% | 27 | no clear pattern |
| October | +0.13% | +0.35% | 50% | +1.28% | +6.87% | -18.01% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| November | +1.33% | +0.57% | 58% | -0.42% | +13.87% | -7.92% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| December | +1.45% | +1.89% | 65% | +2.68% | +9.72% | -10.30% | 26 | moderate |
What drives Gold
- Real interest rates and the US dollar, plus central-bank buying, which has become a structural source of demand.
- Indian wedding and festival season and Chinese New Year buying are the traditional seasonal demand peaks.
- Safe-haven demand during geopolitical and financial stress; mine supply grows only slowly.
Sell in May for Gold
From 2001 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +8.28% and the May to October half +4.05%. The winter half did better in 48% of 25 years. Compare all markets.
How Gold reacted to events
Average move from the close before each event. Day 1 is the close on the event day.
| Event | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed hikes | 38 | +0.06% | +0.55% | +1.09% | 59% |
| Fed cuts | 33 | +0.11% | +0.36% | +2.10% | 70% |
| First Fed hike of a cycle | 4 | +0.01% | +1.18% | +1.22% | 67% |
| First Fed cut of a cycle | 4 | -0.04% | +2.05% | +3.96% | 75% |
| Fed cuts of 50 bp or more | 18 | +0.20% | +0.29% | +0.91% | 67% |
| ECB hikes | 26 | -0.36% | -0.24% | +0.30% | 48% |
| ECB cuts | 29 | +0.22% | +0.14% | +0.84% | 52% |
| Tariff escalation headlines | 8 | +0.20% | +1.38% | +2.51% | 100% |
| Oil supply cuts (OPEC+ and disruptions) | 5 | +0.18% | -0.82% | -1.93% | 20% |
Year by year
Latest insights on Gold
A 29,000-job September meets a Fed that just restarted hiking
The Fed's first hike of a new cycle came just over two weeks before a weak payrolls print. History after first hikes is mixed for stocks over a month.
Tariff threats of up to 300%: what past tariff headlines did to markets
A rally speech named South Korea, China, Japan and Canada. Past escalation headlines have hit Asian exporters and oil hardest within a week.
Gold holds its ground despite yields at multi-decade highs
Real yields would normally weigh on gold. Central-bank buying is one reason the pullback has stayed contained.
Questions
What is the best month for Gold?
Since 2000, January has had the highest average move for Gold at +2.95%, rising in 65% of 26 years. August has the highest share of positive years (73%).
What is the worst month for Gold?
June has had the weakest average move at -0.87%, rising in 42% of 26 years.
How does Gold usually do in October?
Gold has averaged +0.13% in October (median +0.35%), rising in 50% of 26 years. We rate the pattern as no clear pattern.
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Build a free watchlistNot investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.