DAX: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, DAX has averaged +1.99% and risen in 68% of 38 years (1988 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as strong.
Last close 25,449.19 on October 6, 2026: +0.77% on the day, +3.91% this year, +0.99% so far in October.
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +0.85% | +2.10% | 59% | +2.06% | +9.50% | -15.07% | 39 | no clear pattern |
| February | +1.06% | +2.15% | 56% | +0.06% | +15.74% | -11.40% | 39 | no clear pattern |
| March | +0.40% | +0.09% | 51% | -1.22% | +9.92% | -16.44% | 39 | no clear pattern |
| April | +2.65% | +1.50% | 72% | +2.78% | +21.38% | -7.82% | 39 | strong |
| May | +1.03% | +1.88% | 64% | +1.85% | +6.68% | -7.35% | 39 | moderate |
| June | -0.04% | -0.17% | 49% | -0.23% | +7.98% | -11.15% | 39 | no clear pattern |
| July | +1.60% | +1.85% | 67% | +1.28% | +16.95% | -15.57% | 39 | strong |
| August | -1.84% | -0.09% | 49% | -0.29% | +5.97% | -19.19% | 39 | weak |
| September | -2.08% | -1.43% | 38% | -0.65% | +7.20% | -25.42% | 39 | moderate |
| October | +1.99% | +2.41% | 68% | -0.03% | +13.86% | -14.46% | 38 | strong |
| November | +2.61% | +2.87% | 66% | +3.12% | +15.01% | -9.96% | 38 | strong |
| December | +2.21% | +2.62% | 74% | +1.36% | +18.01% | -12.88% | 38 | strong |
What drives DAX
- Germany's 40 largest companies, heavy in autos, industrials, chemicals and software.
- Export-driven: sensitive to China demand, energy prices and the euro exchange rate.
- A total-return index, so dividends are reinvested, which flatters spring months when most German companies pay.
Sell in May for DAX
From 1989 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +10.26% and the May to October half -0.13%. The winter half did better in 73% of 37 years. Compare all markets.
How DAX reacted to events
Average move from the close before each event. Day 1 is the close on the event day.
| Event | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed hikes | 52 | +0.56% | +0.26% | +0.59% | 69% |
| Fed cuts | 39 | +0.27% | -0.10% | +1.46% | 62% |
| First Fed hike of a cycle | 7 | +1.40% | +0.90% | -2.59% | 33% |
| First Fed cut of a cycle | 6 | +0.32% | -1.43% | +3.08% | 67% |
| Fed cuts of 50 bp or more | 18 | +0.60% | +0.04% | +2.97% | 72% |
| ECB hikes | 31 | +0.06% | -0.07% | +0.96% | 67% |
| ECB cuts | 30 | -0.44% | -1.42% | +0.46% | 57% |
| Tariff escalation headlines | 8 | -1.28% | -2.52% | +0.59% | 63% |
Year by year
Latest insights on DAX
The euro slides to a 17-month low despite two ECB hikes
French fiscal worries hit the CAC 40 while the dollar rose with Treasury yields.
Questions
What is the best month for DAX?
Since 1988, April has had the highest average move for DAX at +2.65%, rising in 72% of 39 years. December has the highest share of positive years (74%).
What is the worst month for DAX?
September has had the weakest average move at -2.08%, rising in 38% of 39 years.
How does DAX usually do in October?
DAX has averaged +1.99% in October (median +2.41%), rising in 68% of 38 years. We rate the pattern as strong.
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Build a free watchlistNot investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.