Nasdaq Composite: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, Nasdaq Composite has averaged +0.77% and risen in 55% of 55 years (1971 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as no clear pattern.
Last close 27,599.79 on October 6, 2026: +0.45% on the day, +18.75% this year, +2.75% so far in October.
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +2.47% | +2.86% | 67% | +3.01% | +16.65% | -9.89% | 55 | strong |
| February | +0.40% | +0.10% | 51% | -0.59% | +19.19% | -22.39% | 55 | no clear pattern |
| March | +0.56% | +1.34% | 63% | -0.96% | +10.94% | -17.10% | 56 | weak |
| April | +1.58% | +1.67% | 66% | +2.64% | +15.45% | -15.57% | 56 | moderate |
| May | +1.38% | +2.85% | 63% | +3.36% | +11.07% | -11.91% | 56 | moderate |
| June | +1.02% | +1.12% | 57% | +2.65% | +16.62% | -9.44% | 56 | weak |
| July | +0.85% | +1.12% | 57% | +3.18% | +12.35% | -9.22% | 56 | no clear pattern |
| August | +0.40% | +1.56% | 57% | +1.73% | +11.66% | -19.93% | 56 | no clear pattern |
| September | -0.72% | +0.35% | 54% | -1.59% | +12.98% | -16.98% | 56 | no clear pattern |
| October | +0.77% | +2.16% | 55% | +0.60% | +17.17% | -27.23% | 55 | no clear pattern |
| November | +2.06% | +2.35% | 71% | +4.14% | +14.22% | -22.90% | 55 | strong |
| December | +1.49% | +0.58% | 60% | -0.13% | +21.98% | -9.69% | 55 | moderate |
What drives Nasdaq Composite
- Mega-cap technology earnings, AI capital spending and semiconductor demand.
- Long-duration growth stocks are more sensitive to changes in bond yields than the broad market.
- Product cycles and developer conferences cluster in spring and early autumn.
Sell in May for Nasdaq Composite
From 1972 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +8.81% and the May to October half +3.77%. The winter half did better in 63% of 54 years. Compare all markets.
How Nasdaq Composite reacted to events
Average move from the close before each event. Day 1 is the close on the event day.
| Event | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed hikes | 52 | +0.37% | +0.20% | +0.35% | 57% |
| Fed cuts | 39 | +0.69% | +0.72% | +1.24% | 56% |
| First Fed hike of a cycle | 7 | +0.69% | +1.53% | -2.49% | 33% |
| First Fed cut of a cycle | 6 | +2.71% | +0.07% | +5.13% | 67% |
| Fed cuts of 50 bp or more | 18 | +1.28% | +0.82% | +2.23% | 67% |
| ECB hikes | 31 | +0.47% | -0.61% | +0.23% | 57% |
| ECB cuts | 30 | -0.89% | -1.64% | +1.18% | 57% |
| Tariff escalation headlines | 8 | -1.82% | -1.47% | -2.40% | 38% |
Year by year
Latest insights on Nasdaq Composite
Yields at 24-year highs while the Nasdaq keeps setting records
The 30-year yield closed at its highest in over 24 years on the same day the Nasdaq printed its 23rd record of 2026.
Questions
What is the best month for Nasdaq Composite?
Since 1971, January has had the highest average move for Nasdaq Composite at +2.47%, rising in 67% of 55 years. November has the highest share of positive years (71%).
What is the worst month for Nasdaq Composite?
September has had the weakest average move at -0.72%, rising in 54% of 56 years.
How does Nasdaq Composite usually do in October?
Nasdaq Composite has averaged +0.77% in October (median +2.16%), rising in 55% of 55 years. We rate the pattern as no clear pattern.
Get alerts for Nasdaq Composite
Free during launch. Pick your markets and topics; we email when something relevant happens, with sources and history attached.
Build a free watchlistNot investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.