FTSE 100: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, FTSE 100 has averaged +0.51% and risen in 69% of 42 years (1984 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as moderate.
Last close 10,541.70 on October 6, 2026: +0.42% on the day, +6.15% this year, -0.61% so far in October.
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +0.49% | +0.94% | 55% | +0.99% | +14.43% | -9.55% | 42 | no clear pattern |
| February | +0.80% | +0.76% | 60% | +0.09% | +9.70% | -9.68% | 43 | weak |
| March | +0.12% | +0.77% | 56% | -1.64% | +8.09% | -13.81% | 43 | no clear pattern |
| April | +1.91% | +2.24% | 74% | +2.14% | +8.77% | -6.43% | 43 | strong |
| May | +0.05% | +0.51% | 56% | +0.75% | +11.49% | -10.30% | 43 | no clear pattern |
| June | -0.75% | -0.36% | 42% | -0.31% | +4.70% | -8.43% | 43 | no clear pattern |
| July | +1.21% | +1.47% | 63% | +1.60% | +8.45% | -8.81% | 43 | moderate |
| August | -0.02% | +0.23% | 56% | -1.09% | +9.29% | -10.07% | 43 | no clear pattern |
| September | -0.83% | -0.78% | 47% | -0.40% | +10.40% | -13.02% | 43 | no clear pattern |
| October | +0.51% | +1.88% | 69% | -0.61% | +8.54% | -26.04% | 42 | moderate |
| November | +0.89% | +1.32% | 57% | +1.53% | +12.35% | -9.71% | 42 | no clear pattern |
| December | +2.15% | +2.43% | 79% | +1.99% | +8.48% | -5.49% | 42 | strong |
What drives FTSE 100
- UK large caps that earn most of their revenue abroad, so a weaker pound tends to lift the index.
- Heavy weights in oil, mining, banks, tobacco and pharma make it more value-tilted than US indices.
Sell in May for FTSE 100
From 1985 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +6.34% and the May to October half -0.10%. The winter half did better in 73% of 41 years. Compare all markets.
How FTSE 100 reacted to events
Average move from the close before each event. Day 1 is the close on the event day.
| Event | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed hikes | 52 | +0.29% | +0.08% | +0.19% | 61% |
| Fed cuts | 39 | +0.58% | +0.18% | +1.20% | 64% |
| First Fed hike of a cycle | 7 | +0.62% | +1.05% | -0.24% | 50% |
| First Fed cut of a cycle | 6 | -0.32% | -1.74% | +1.36% | 67% |
| Fed cuts of 50 bp or more | 18 | +1.10% | +0.76% | +2.73% | 72% |
| ECB hikes | 31 | +0.14% | -0.03% | +0.32% | 57% |
| ECB cuts | 30 | -0.31% | -1.35% | -0.29% | 50% |
Year by year
Latest insights on FTSE 100
Questions
What is the best month for FTSE 100?
Since 1984, December has had the highest average move for FTSE 100 at +2.15%, rising in 79% of 42 years. December has the highest share of positive years (79%).
What is the worst month for FTSE 100?
September has had the weakest average move at -0.83%, rising in 47% of 43 years.
How does FTSE 100 usually do in October?
FTSE 100 has averaged +0.51% in October (median +1.88%), rising in 69% of 42 years. We rate the pattern as moderate.
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