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Supply shocks

Production cuts, disruptions, inventories and harvests across energy, metals and agriculture.

Oil supply shock study

Brent at $102.31: a Hormuz risk premium meets a seasonally weak window

OPEC+ held output steady and the Brent-WTI spread widened above $11. Autumn refinery maintenance usually softens crude demand.

Oct 6Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, Heating oil (ULSD), Exxon Mobil

Natural gas enters one of its strongest seasonal months with LNG flows disrupted

October has been one of Henry Hub's strongest months in our data. Storage builds are running below average and Qatar extended force majeure into winter.

Oct 6Natural gas (Henry Hub), European natural gas (TTF)

Gold holds its ground despite yields at multi-decade highs

Real yields would normally weigh on gold. Central-bank buying is one reason the pullback has stayed contained.

Oct 6Gold, Silver

Sugar surges, cocoa enters its weakest month, coffee jumps on Brazil rain

Three soft commodities with very different October records and very different supply stories.

Oct 6Sugar, Cocoa, Coffee (Arabica), Lean hogs

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.