Sugar surges, cocoa enters its weakest month, coffee jumps on Brazil rain
Three soft commodities with very different October records and very different supply stories.
What happened
Raw sugar traded at 20.88 cents a pound on October 6, up 15.34% over the month, and StoneX forecasts a 0.9 million tonne deficit in 2026/27. ICE cocoa stocks of 3,481,504 bags were the highest in 2.25 years and Ivory Coast shipments are up 19.8% for the season. Arabica coffee rose 4.34% to 305.24 cents with Brazilian rain hurting bean quality and certified stocks near 27-year lows.
- Raw sugar traded at 20.88 cents a pound on October 6, up 15.34% over the month. StoneX forecasts a 0.9 million tonne deficit in 2026/27.
- ICE cocoa stocks of 3,481,504 bags on September 30 were the highest in 2.25 years, and Ivory Coast shipments were up 19.8% for the season.
- Arabica coffee rose 4.34% to 305.24 cents a pound on October 6, with Brazilian rain hurting bean quality and certified stocks near 27-year lows.
Why it matters
Softs are driven by a handful of producing countries and their harvest calendars, which is why their seasonal patterns are among the most consistent in our data. Supply news this month lines up with those calendars for cocoa and sugar.
What history shows
In our data sugar is +36.20% over three months and cocoa -53.31% below its all-time high.
Seasonal backdrop
October has been one of cocoa's weakest months, averaging -2.80% and rising in only 35% of years, as the West African main crop begins. Sugar has averaged +3.28% in October, rising in 65% of years. Lean hogs have the strongest negative October pattern in our whole dataset, averaging -5.56% with gains in only 28% of years.
Markets in this insight
| Market | Last | Day | 1 month | Year to date | Oct average | Oct pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sugar | 20.82 | +0.43% | +15.22% | +38.71% | +3.28% | moderate |
| Cocoa | 5,700.00 | -2.85% | -6.28% | -6.02% | -2.80% | moderate |
| Coffee (Arabica) | 304.45 | +4.07% | -6.11% | -12.70% | -1.10% | no clear pattern |
| Lean hogs | 77.93 | +0.10% | -5.32% | -8.43% | -5.56% | strong |
Scenarios
Cocoa follows the calendar
Main-crop arrivals and high exchange stocks keep pressure on cocoa.
- Rising port arrivals in Ivory Coast
Sugar deficit priced further
Deficit forecasts and Brazilian mills favouring ethanol support sugar.
- Lower sugar mix in UNICA reports
What to watch
- Ivory Coast arrivals data
- UNICA crush reports
- ICE certified stocks