Natural gas enters one of its strongest seasonal months with LNG flows disrupted

October has been one of Henry Hub's strongest months in our data. Storage builds are running below average and Qatar extended force majeure into winter.

Published October 6, 2026 in the daily brief · Markets: Natural gas (Henry Hub), European natural gas (TTF)

What happened

US storage rose 64 bcf in the week ended September 25 against a five-year average build of 80 bcf, and LNG feedgas averaged 17.9 bcf/d in September. Qatar extended force majeure on LNG to November for Asia and December for Europe, and LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain 80% below February levels according to Kpler. The EU ban on Russian LNG starts in January.

• US natural gas storage rose by 64 bcf in the week ended September 25, against a five-year average build of 80 bcf. LNG feedgas averaged 17.9 bcf/d in September. Source: Trading Economics, Oct 6
• Qatar extended force majeure on LNG deliveries to November for Asia and to December for Europe. LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain 80% below February levels, according to Kpler. The EU ban on Russian LNG starts in January. Source: The National, Oct 2

Why it matters

Smaller-than-normal injections late in the refill season leave less cushion for winter. Strong export demand links US prices to a tight global LNG market, which is why European supply news now moves Henry Hub as well.

What history shows

Henry Hub closed at 3.0660 on October 5, 2026, -16.82% year to date and -58.90% below its 52-week high.

Seasonal backdrop

October has been one of the two strongest months for US natural gas futures in our data, averaging +7.37% with gains in 65% of 26 years. The pattern held in both halves of the sample. The market prices winter heating risk in this window as storage injections wind down.

Markets in this insight

Latest close (October 6, 2026). The figures in the text above are as of publication.

Scenarios

Scenarios describe plausible paths and the signs that would point to each. They are not forecasts, and we do not assign them probabilities. Where a scenario names a market and a direction, our scorecard checks it after the horizon ends.

What to watch

• Thursday EIA storage reports
• Qatar LNG force majeure updates

How this was made: facts were collected and checked against the cited pages; every historical figure is computed by our code from Yahoo Finance and FRED price history and inserted automatically, as of the close of October 5, 2026. The explanation was written by our editors. Editorial policy.