European natural gas (TTF): seasonality, event history and insights
In October, European natural gas (TTF) has averaged +2.82% and risen in 62% of 34 years (1992 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as weak.
Latest monthly average: 17.93 (2026-07), +18.80% on the month.
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +1.88% | +0.82% | 50% | -3.54% | +49.86% | -43.77% | 34 | no clear pattern |
| February | -2.65% | 0.00% | 6% | -7.08% | +17.94% | -17.40% | 35 | strong |
| March | +0.47% | 0.00% | 20% | +5.65% | +57.91% | -20.73% | 35 | no clear pattern |
| April | -1.93% | +0.37% | 51% | -7.04% | +17.36% | -25.30% | 35 | no clear pattern |
| May | -1.36% | 0.00% | 17% | -3.69% | +23.64% | -29.81% | 35 | moderate |
| June | +1.02% | 0.00% | 29% | +3.51% | +19.84% | -20.12% | 35 | no clear pattern |
| July | +2.79% | +1.55% | 54% | +8.36% | +55.40% | -21.05% | 35 | no clear pattern |
| August | +4.43% | 0.00% | 29% | +14.90% | +59.16% | -9.06% | 34 | no clear pattern |
| September | +2.54% | 0.00% | 24% | +8.94% | +47.61% | -21.15% | 34 | no clear pattern |
| October | +2.82% | +2.49% | 62% | +1.87% | +34.10% | -62.29% | 34 | weak |
| November | +2.73% | 0.00% | 26% | +10.14% | +43.16% | -8.15% | 34 | no clear pattern |
| December | +1.88% | 0.00% | 29% | +6.02% | +36.44% | -17.63% | 34 | no clear pattern |
What drives European natural gas (TTF)
- Europe's storage refill season runs from April to October; EU rules set fill targets ahead of winter.
- LNG imports from the US and Qatar replaced most pipeline gas from Russia after 2022.
- Cold snaps, wind output and Norwegian maintenance drive short-term spikes.
Sell in May for European natural gas (TTF)
From 1993 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +0.48% and the May to October half +15.96%. The winter half did better in 48% of 33 years. Compare all markets.
Year by year
Latest insights on European natural gas (TTF)
Natural gas enters one of its strongest seasonal months with LNG flows disrupted
October has been one of Henry Hub's strongest months in our data. Storage builds are running below average and Qatar extended force majeure into winter.
Questions
What is the best month for European natural gas (TTF)?
Since 1992, August has had the highest average move for European natural gas (TTF) at +4.43%, rising in 29% of 34 years. October has the highest share of positive years (62%).
What is the worst month for European natural gas (TTF)?
February has had the weakest average move at -2.65%, rising in 6% of 35 years.
How does European natural gas (TTF) usually do in October?
European natural gas (TTF) has averaged +2.82% in October (median +2.49%), rising in 62% of 34 years. We rate the pattern as weak.
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