From the news
Today's headlines, checked against their sources and tested against history.
A 29,000-job September meets a Fed that just restarted hiking
The Fed's first hike of a new cycle came just over two weeks before a weak payrolls print. History after first hikes is mixed for stocks over a month.
Yields at 24-year highs while the Nasdaq keeps setting records
The 30-year yield closed at its highest in over 24 years on the same day the Nasdaq printed its 23rd record of 2026.
Tariff threats of up to 300%: what past tariff headlines did to markets
A rally speech named South Korea, China, Japan and Canada. Past escalation headlines have hit Asian exporters and oil hardest within a week.
Brazil's first-round surprise sends the Ibovespa to a record
Flavio Bolsonaro edged Lula in the first round. The runoff is on October 25, and the Ibovespa closed at a record.
Brent at $102.31: a Hormuz risk premium meets a seasonally weak window
OPEC+ held output steady and the Brent-WTI spread widened above $11. Autumn refinery maintenance usually softens crude demand.
Natural gas enters one of its strongest seasonal months with LNG flows disrupted
October has been one of Henry Hub's strongest months in our data. Storage builds are running below average and Qatar extended force majeure into winter.
Gold holds its ground despite yields at multi-decade highs
Real yields would normally weigh on gold. Central-bank buying is one reason the pullback has stayed contained.
Bitcoin's strongest seasonal month arrives late in the halving cycle
October has been bitcoin's best month in our data. The current cycle is past the window where previous cycles peaked.
Third-quarter earnings season starts with the big banks on October 13
Bank results will be the first read on loan demand and trading under a hiking Fed. A $22.6bn deal shows how fast single-stock moves can be.
The euro slides to a 17-month low despite two ECB hikes
French fiscal worries hit the CAC 40 while the dollar rose with Treasury yields.
Sugar surges, cocoa enters its weakest month, coffee jumps on Brazil rain
Three soft commodities with very different October records and very different supply stories.
The midterm-year fourth quarter has been the strongest stretch of the four-year cycle
2026 is a US midterm year. Since 1928 the S&P 500 has risen in most midterm-year fourth quarters.
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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.