Tariff posts and headlines: what happened next
After 8 tariff escalation headlines since 2018, the S&P 500 moved -1.60% on average the next day and -1.47% over five days. Gold rose over five days in 88% of cases.
Posts, speeches and orders about tariffs became a market driver of their own. This study uses dated headlines where the timing is clear. When a headline came after the US close, the reaction starts from that day's close. The list is short, so single events weigh heavily; we add new headlines as they happen.
Average reactions
| Market | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 | Up after 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 8 | -1.60% | -1.47% | -1.97% | 38% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 8 | -1.82% | -1.47% | -2.40% | 25% |
| DAX | 8 | -1.28% | -2.52% | +0.59% | 38% |
| Nikkei 225 | 7 | -0.91% | -3.53% | -0.15% | 0% |
| KOSPI | 8 | -0.73% | -3.22% | -0.50% | 25% |
| Hang Seng | 8 | -0.64% | -2.95% | -1.01% | 25% |
| Copper | 8 | -0.85% | -1.79% | -1.51% | 50% |
| Gold | 8 | +0.20% | +1.38% | +2.51% | 88% |
| WTI crude oil | 8 | -2.24% | -3.31% | -3.26% | 25% |
| Bitcoin | 8 | +0.77% | +2.59% | +3.47% | 63% |
| US dollar index (DXY) | 8 | -0.23% | -0.40% | -0.54% | 25% |
| USD/JPY | 8 | -0.28% | -1.75% | -1.14% | 0% |
| US 10-year Treasury yield | 8 | -6 bp | -7 bp | -13 bp | 25% |
| Apple | 8 | -2.90% | -3.72% | -2.13% | 13% |
| Tesla | 8 | -3.07% | -5.24% | -7.03% | 13% |
Every headline
| Date | Headline | S&P 500 | KOSPI | Copper | Gold | USD/JPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 1, 2018 | US announces steel and aluminium tariffs | +0.48% | +0.24% | +0.21% | +0.80% | -1.76% |
| March 22, 2018 | US signs memorandum for tariffs on Chinese goods | -3.94% | -2.64% | -1.79% | +0.27% | -0.92% |
| May 5, 2019 | Weekend posts threaten higher tariffs on China | -2.18% | -5.34% | -1.42% | +0.51% | -1.51% |
| August 1, 2019 | Post announces new tariff on remaining Chinese imports | -3.23% | -5.67% | -3.50% | +5.69% | -2.05% |
| August 23, 2019 | Posts tell US companies to look for alternatives to China | +0.06% | -0.90% | +0.23% | +1.95% | -0.49% |
| November 25, 2024 | Post promises tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China | +1.04% | -3.15% | +1.33% | +1.89% | -2.76% |
| February 1, 2025 | Tariff orders on Canada, Mexico and China signed on a Saturday | -0.24% | +0.18% | +7.50% | +2.67% | -1.88% |
| April 2, 2025 | Broad reciprocal tariffs announced after the close | -3.77% | -8.47% | -16.88% | -2.74% | -2.63% |
| April 9, 2025 | Ninety-day pause on most reciprocal tariffs | +8.31% | +6.13% | +11.71% | +8.37% | -3.09% |
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