Apple: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, Apple has averaged +6.17% and risen in 69% of 45 years (1981 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as strong.
Last close 333.63 on October 6, 2026: +0.22% on the day, +23.06% this year, +0.18% so far in October.
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +3.59% | +0.98% | 57% | +0.90% | +45.38% | -31.66% | 46 | no clear pattern |
| February | +1.68% | +2.11% | 54% | +0.48% | +29.01% | -15.61% | 46 | no clear pattern |
| March | +2.20% | -0.52% | 50% | +0.29% | +20.93% | -13.70% | 46 | no clear pattern |
| April | +3.65% | +1.54% | 59% | +2.24% | +28.00% | -19.12% | 46 | moderate |
| May | +2.50% | +3.39% | 54% | +3.33% | +26.23% | -32.29% | 46 | no clear pattern |
| June | -1.94% | -2.56% | 46% | +3.68% | +24.70% | -30.24% | 46 | no clear pattern |
| July | +3.19% | +3.07% | 63% | +7.02% | +27.12% | -29.75% | 46 | weak |
| August | +5.38% | +4.67% | 63% | +6.55% | +33.33% | -19.50% | 46 | strong |
| September | -3.68% | -1.80% | 37% | -2.10% | +22.24% | -57.74% | 46 | weak |
| October | +6.17% | +6.03% | 69% | +3.18% | +39.04% | -31.64% | 45 | strong |
| November | +2.91% | +3.24% | 56% | +2.60% | +27.96% | -18.12% | 45 | weak |
| December | +1.45% | +2.82% | 60% | +1.25% | +28.18% | -26.06% | 45 | no clear pattern |
What drives Apple
- iPhone launch cycle every September and holiday-quarter sales reported in late January.
- Services growth, China demand, tariffs on electronics and app-store regulation.
Sell in May for Apple
From 1982 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +17.26% and the May to October half +13.27%. The winter half did better in 52% of 44 years. Compare all markets.
How Apple reacted to events
Average move from the close before each event. Day 1 is the close on the event day.
| Event | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff escalation headlines | 8 | -2.90% | -3.72% | -2.13% | 50% |
How Apple reacts to its earnings
Across 67 results announcements since 2010, Apple moved +0.91% on average over the two sessions around the release, rising 63% of the time. The typical move, up or down, was 3.93%, and the average move relative to the S&P 500 was +0.70%. The largest was +11.81% on July 30, 2020.
| Results filed | Two-day move | Versus S&P 500 | 20 days later |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 30, 2026 | -8.66% | -11.03% | -6.90% |
| April 30, 2026 | +3.69% | +2.37% | +15.61% |
| January 29, 2026 | +1.19% | +1.75% | +3.11% |
| October 30, 2025 | +0.25% | +0.98% | +3.49% |
| July 31, 2025 | -3.19% | -1.23% | +11.37% |
| May 1, 2025 | -3.36% | -5.47% | -5.36% |
| January 30, 2025 | -1.40% | -1.42% | +1.15% |
| October 31, 2024 | -3.12% | -1.66% | +3.26% |
| August 1, 2024 | -1.00% | +2.18% | +3.59% |
| May 2, 2024 | +8.32% | +6.14% | +13.71% |
| February 1, 2024 | +0.79% | -1.54% | -2.45% |
| November 2, 2023 | +1.54% | -1.30% | +10.07% |
Year by year
Latest insights on Apple
Questions
What is the best month for Apple?
Since 1981, October has had the highest average move for Apple at +6.17%, rising in 69% of 45 years. October has the highest share of positive years (69%).
What is the worst month for Apple?
September has had the weakest average move at -3.68%, rising in 37% of 46 years.
How does Apple usually do in October?
Apple has averaged +6.17% in October (median +6.03%), rising in 69% of 45 years. We rate the pattern as strong.
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Build a free watchlistNot investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.