WTI crude oil: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, WTI crude oil has averaged -1.77% and risen in 46% of 26 years (2000 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as no clear pattern.
Last close 89.44 on October 6, 2026: +0.01% on the day, +55.76% this year, -1.08% so far in October.
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +1.99% | +1.01% | 54% | +5.20% | +18.45% | -15.56% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| February | +3.54% | +5.21% | 73% | +1.69% | +17.82% | -13.19% | 26 | strong |
| March | +2.59% | +4.93% | 58% | +0.91% | +51.27% | -54.24% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| April | +2.33% | +3.29% | 65% | -0.17% | +25.27% | -18.56% | 26 | weak |
| May | +2.95% | -0.57% | 46% | +5.19% | +88.38% | -17.49% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| June | +2.11% | +3.76% | 65% | +2.52% | +10.78% | -20.44% | 26 | weak |
| July | +1.55% | +0.62% | 69% | +3.79% | +21.83% | -20.77% | 26 | weak |
| August | -0.71% | -0.76% | 50% | -3.07% | +13.82% | -9.20% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| September | -0.97% | -3.92% | 41% | +0.93% | +17.85% | -13.86% | 27 | no clear pattern |
| October | -1.77% | -1.27% | 46% | -1.04% | +17.66% | -32.62% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| November | -2.66% | -2.81% | 42% | -2.22% | +26.68% | -22.02% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| December | +0.26% | +2.98% | 58% | +3.19% | +16.03% | -20.71% | 26 | no clear pattern |
What drives WTI crude oil
- OPEC+ output decisions, US shale production and inventories reported every Wednesday by the EIA.
- The US driving season lifts gasoline demand from Memorial Day to Labor Day; refinery maintenance in spring and autumn cuts crude demand.
- Geopolitical risk in the Middle East and Russia, sanctions and shipping disruptions.
Sell in May for WTI crude oil
From 2001 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +6.09% and the May to October half +3.74%. The winter half did better in 56% of 25 years. Compare all markets.
How WTI crude oil reacted to events
Average move from the close before each event. Day 1 is the close on the event day.
| Event | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed hikes | 38 | +0.23% | +0.25% | +1.94% | 57% |
| Fed cuts | 33 | +0.33% | -1.73% | -2.83% | 48% |
| First Fed hike of a cycle | 4 | +0.52% | +2.64% | +2.85% | 67% |
| First Fed cut of a cycle | 4 | +1.11% | -1.18% | +1.55% | 50% |
| Fed cuts of 50 bp or more | 18 | +0.34% | -3.31% | -5.98% | 50% |
| ECB hikes | 26 | +0.37% | +0.20% | -2.19% | 52% |
| ECB cuts | 29 | +0.19% | +0.21% | -2.38% | 45% |
| Tariff escalation headlines | 8 | -2.24% | -3.31% | -3.26% | 50% |
| Oil supply cuts (OPEC+ and disruptions) | 5 | +6.03% | +1.49% | +5.49% | 60% |
Year by year
Latest insights on WTI crude oil
Brent at $102.31: a Hormuz risk premium meets a seasonally weak window
OPEC+ held output steady and the Brent-WTI spread widened above $11. Autumn refinery maintenance usually softens crude demand.
Questions
What is the best month for WTI crude oil?
Since 2000, February has had the highest average move for WTI crude oil at +3.54%, rising in 73% of 26 years. February has the highest share of positive years (73%).
What is the worst month for WTI crude oil?
November has had the weakest average move at -2.66%, rising in 42% of 26 years.
How does WTI crude oil usually do in October?
WTI crude oil has averaged -1.77% in October (median -1.27%), rising in 46% of 26 years. We rate the pattern as no clear pattern.
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