Hang Seng: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, Hang Seng has averaged +0.76% and risen in 67% of 39 years (1987 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as moderate.
Last close 24,280.56 on October 6, 2026: +1.00% on the day, -5.27% this year, -1.35% so far in October.
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +0.49% | +1.28% | 55% | +3.21% | +14.34% | -15.67% | 40 | no clear pattern |
| February | +2.30% | +1.46% | 60% | +0.30% | +24.08% | -9.41% | 40 | moderate |
| March | -1.04% | +0.18% | 53% | -1.72% | +10.99% | -13.71% | 40 | no clear pattern |
| April | +2.22% | +2.16% | 68% | +1.28% | +21.85% | -10.84% | 40 | strong |
| May | +0.43% | -0.23% | 48% | -1.36% | +17.07% | -13.96% | 40 | no clear pattern |
| June | -0.10% | +0.44% | 55% | +0.49% | +11.40% | -17.13% | 40 | no clear pattern |
| July | +2.29% | +2.88% | 65% | +0.51% | +13.13% | -9.94% | 40 | strong |
| August | -1.54% | -0.85% | 40% | -1.11% | +8.02% | -13.63% | 40 | moderate |
| September | -0.06% | +0.38% | 50% | -0.82% | +17.48% | -15.27% | 40 | no clear pattern |
| October | +0.76% | +2.76% | 67% | -2.60% | +28.81% | -44.10% | 39 | moderate |
| November | +1.21% | +0.32% | 51% | +3.01% | +26.62% | -12.23% | 39 | no clear pattern |
| December | +2.01% | +1.21% | 67% | +1.54% | +30.28% | -7.43% | 39 | strong |
What drives Hang Seng
- Hong Kong-listed Chinese internet, banks and property companies; driven by Beijing's stimulus and US-China relations.
Sell in May for Hang Seng
From 1988 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +7.04% and the May to October half +2.42%. The winter half did better in 58% of 38 years. Compare all markets.
How Hang Seng reacted to events
Average move from the close before each event. Day 1 is the close on the event day.
| Event | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff escalation headlines | 8 | -0.64% | -2.95% | -1.01% | 38% |
Year by year
Latest insights on Hang Seng
Tariff threats of up to 300%: what past tariff headlines did to markets
A rally speech named South Korea, China, Japan and Canada. Past escalation headlines have hit Asian exporters and oil hardest within a week.
Questions
What is the best month for Hang Seng?
Since 1987, February has had the highest average move for Hang Seng at +2.30%, rising in 60% of 40 years. April has the highest share of positive years (68%).
What is the worst month for Hang Seng?
August has had the weakest average move at -1.54%, rising in 40% of 40 years.
How does Hang Seng usually do in October?
Hang Seng has averaged +0.76% in October (median +2.76%), rising in 67% of 39 years. We rate the pattern as moderate.
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