Third-quarter earnings season starts with the big banks on October 13
Bank results will be the first read on loan demand and trading under a hiking Fed. A $22.6bn deal shows how fast single-stock moves can be.
What happened
JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo report on October 13, with JPMorganChase releasing results at about 7:00am ET. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley follow on October 14 and TSMC on October 15. In Europe, Schneider Electric agreed an all-cash deal for PTC valued at about $22.6bn; PTC rose 33.5% and Schneider fell 10%.
Sources: interactive investor, JPMorganChase, The Irish Times. Details
Why it matters
Rising short-term rates help bank net interest income but can slow loan growth and lift credit costs, so guidance matters more than the headline beat. TSMC's results are the first hard data point on AI chip demand this season.
What history shows
JPMorgan's October record is +2.20% on average with gains in 61% of 46 years. After past Fed hikes its average 20-day move was -0.35%.
The stock is -7.32% over a month and -8.98% below its 52-week high going into results.
Seasonal backdrop
Earnings months (January, April, July, October) bring the largest single-stock moves of the year. Our October page ranks every market by its seasonal record.
Scenarios
Possible paths and the signs that would point to each. No probabilities. Testable ones are graded on the scorecard.
Margin lift
Banks report wider net interest margins and steady credit, and financials lead the market.
- Raised net interest income guidance
- Stable loan-loss provisions
Credit worries
Higher provisions and weak loan demand outweigh margin gains.
- Rising provisions
- Cautious consumer commentary
What to watch
- October 13: JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Wells Fargo
- October 14: Bank of America, Morgan Stanley
- October 15: TSMC
Sources and method (3)
- Third-quarter bank earnings start on October 13 with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo, followed by Bank of America and Morgan Stanley on October 14 and TSMC on October 15. PepsiCo reports on October 8 and Delta on October 9. interactive investor, Oct 6
- JPMorganChase will release third-quarter results at about 7:00am ET on October 13 and host its call at 8:30am ET. JPMorganChase, Oct 6
- Schneider Electric agreed an all-cash deal for PTC valued at about $22.6bn. PTC shares rose 33.5% and Schneider fell 10%. The Irish Times, Oct 5