ASML: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, ASML has averaged +7.52% and risen in 68% of 28 years (1998 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as strong.
Last close 1,636.40 on October 6, 2026: -1.20% on the day, +78.45% this year, +2.48% so far in October.
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +15.04% | +5.74% | 75% | +9.57% | +231.82% | -18.05% | 28 | strong |
| February | -0.47% | -0.53% | 50% | +1.22% | +11.49% | -22.74% | 28 | no clear pattern |
| March | +1.88% | +1.13% | 54% | +1.20% | +18.30% | -11.76% | 28 | no clear pattern |
| April | +2.00% | -0.54% | 46% | +0.81% | +30.08% | -14.74% | 28 | no clear pattern |
| May | +2.31% | +4.74% | 57% | +4.97% | +17.55% | -18.81% | 28 | no clear pattern |
| June | +1.71% | +0.01% | 50% | +4.69% | +31.07% | -21.65% | 28 | no clear pattern |
| July | +2.86% | +2.07% | 54% | +1.55% | +40.75% | -22.02% | 28 | no clear pattern |
| August | -2.53% | -0.78% | 41% | -0.62% | +23.28% | -32.48% | 29 | no clear pattern |
| September | -3.02% | +0.13% | 52% | +1.95% | +30.08% | -40.36% | 29 | no clear pattern |
| October | +7.52% | +4.46% | 68% | +1.70% | +56.44% | -16.49% | 28 | strong |
| November | +5.83% | +4.90% | 68% | +5.07% | +43.82% | -25.15% | 28 | strong |
| December | +2.05% | +2.17% | 64% | +2.09% | +17.30% | -30.66% | 28 | weak |
What drives ASML
- Sole supplier of EUV lithography machines; orders follow chipmaker capital spending.
- Export restrictions on China and the AI chip build-out.
Sell in May for ASML
From 1999 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +33.11% and the May to October half +8.92%. The winter half did better in 59% of 27 years. Compare all markets.
Year by year
Latest insights on ASML
Third-quarter earnings season starts with the big banks on October 13
Bank results will be the first read on loan demand and trading under a hiking Fed. A $22.6bn deal shows how fast single-stock moves can be.
Questions
What is the best month for ASML?
Since 1998, January has had the highest average move for ASML at +15.04%, rising in 75% of 28 years. January has the highest share of positive years (75%).
What is the worst month for ASML?
September has had the weakest average move at -3.02%, rising in 52% of 29 years.
How does ASML usually do in October?
ASML has averaged +7.52% in October (median +4.46%), rising in 68% of 28 years. We rate the pattern as strong.
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