JPMorgan Chase: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, JPMorgan Chase has averaged +2.20% and risen in 61% of 46 years (1980 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as weak.
Last close 331.28 on October 6, 2026: +0.17% on the day, +4.79% this year, +0.64% so far in October.
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +3.49% | +4.64% | 63% | +2.19% | +31.76% | -18.11% | 46 | strong |
| February | +2.35% | +2.61% | 57% | +1.16% | +25.71% | -15.15% | 46 | weak |
| March | +1.00% | -1.29% | 46% | -4.45% | +21.88% | -22.46% | 46 | no clear pattern |
| April | +3.23% | +2.10% | 60% | +2.24% | +25.55% | -16.84% | 47 | strong |
| May | +0.97% | +1.45% | 57% | +1.06% | +17.26% | -23.72% | 47 | no clear pattern |
| June | +0.15% | +1.04% | 55% | +1.68% | +19.52% | -20.21% | 47 | no clear pattern |
| July | +2.10% | +1.80% | 66% | +4.74% | +19.88% | -25.61% | 47 | weak |
| August | +0.15% | +0.09% | 51% | +0.23% | +14.41% | -30.58% | 47 | no clear pattern |
| September | -1.95% | +0.12% | 51% | -0.85% | +21.33% | -28.07% | 47 | no clear pattern |
| October | +2.20% | +3.10% | 61% | +4.53% | +32.91% | -34.68% | 46 | weak |
| November | +2.00% | +1.86% | 57% | +7.60% | +21.30% | -23.25% | 46 | no clear pattern |
| December | +1.63% | +1.40% | 54% | +1.60% | +23.22% | -14.60% | 46 | weak |
What drives JPMorgan Chase
- The largest US bank; usually the first big company to report each earnings season.
- Net interest income depends on the shape of the yield curve; trading and deal fees depend on market activity.
Sell in May for JPMorgan Chase
From 1981 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +14.74% and the May to October half +2.75%. The winter half did better in 69% of 45 years. Compare all markets.
How JPMorgan Chase reacted to events
Average move from the close before each event. Day 1 is the close on the event day.
| Event | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed hikes | 52 | +0.36% | -0.71% | -0.35% | 45% |
| Fed cuts | 39 | +1.41% | +0.92% | +1.65% | 62% |
| First Fed hike of a cycle | 7 | +1.20% | -0.53% | -5.04% | 33% |
| First Fed cut of a cycle | 6 | +4.11% | +1.88% | +10.30% | 83% |
| Fed cuts of 50 bp or more | 18 | +2.10% | -0.09% | +0.66% | 67% |
| ECB hikes | 31 | +0.61% | -0.81% | -0.03% | 60% |
| ECB cuts | 30 | -1.17% | -2.58% | +1.54% | 60% |
How JPMorgan Chase reacts to its earnings
Across 67 results announcements since 2010, JPMorgan Chase moved -0.40% on average over the two sessions around the release, rising 48% of the time. The typical move, up or down, was 2.82%, and the average move relative to the S&P 500 was -0.64%. The largest was -10.08% on January 14, 2022.
| Results filed | Two-day move | Versus S&P 500 | 20 days later |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 14, 2026 | +3.70% | +2.94% | +8.22% |
| April 14, 2026 | -2.47% | -4.46% | -2.81% |
| January 13, 2026 | -5.12% | -4.39% | -4.21% |
| October 14, 2025 | -0.74% | -0.99% | +2.48% |
| July 15, 2025 | -1.00% | -0.92% | +1.44% |
| April 11, 2025 | +3.35% | +0.73% | +14.50% |
| January 15, 2025 | +2.75% | +1.13% | +11.66% |
| October 11, 2024 | +4.06% | +2.68% | +11.34% |
| July 12, 2024 | +1.25% | +0.41% | -0.80% |
| April 12, 2024 | -6.42% | -3.78% | +1.71% |
| January 12, 2024 | -1.36% | -1.06% | +3.22% |
| October 13, 2023 | +1.40% | +0.85% | +0.43% |
Year by year
Latest insights on JPMorgan Chase
Third-quarter earnings season starts with the big banks on October 13
Bank results will be the first read on loan demand and trading under a hiking Fed. A $22.6bn deal shows how fast single-stock moves can be.
Questions
What is the best month for JPMorgan Chase?
Since 1980, January has had the highest average move for JPMorgan Chase at +3.49%, rising in 63% of 46 years. July has the highest share of positive years (66%).
What is the worst month for JPMorgan Chase?
September has had the weakest average move at -1.95%, rising in 51% of 47 years.
How does JPMorgan Chase usually do in October?
JPMorgan Chase has averaged +2.20% in October (median +3.10%), rising in 61% of 46 years. We rate the pattern as weak.
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