Nvidia: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, Nvidia has averaged +5.54% and risen in 59% of 27 years (1999 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as weak.
Last close 239.24 on October 6, 2026: +0.14% on the day, +28.58% this year, +4.76% so far in October.
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +3.38% | -1.49% | 41% | +7.00% | +57.56% | -27.72% | 27 | no clear pattern |
| February | +7.42% | +4.49% | 68% | +6.26% | +72.68% | -22.41% | 28 | strong |
| March | +4.73% | +1.50% | 54% | +4.54% | +45.28% | -18.53% | 28 | weak |
| April | +0.40% | +1.43% | 57% | -0.46% | +28.31% | -32.03% | 28 | no clear pattern |
| May | +10.91% | +5.71% | 75% | +14.91% | +82.62% | -25.07% | 28 | strong |
| June | -1.07% | -0.63% | 50% | +6.31% | +23.16% | -48.65% | 28 | no clear pattern |
| July | -1.43% | +0.80% | 54% | +6.57% | +21.46% | -38.89% | 28 | no clear pattern |
| August | +7.78% | +6.62% | 75% | +5.79% | +39.75% | -19.20% | 28 | strong |
| September | -1.65% | +1.70% | 61% | -1.57% | +25.19% | -35.14% | 28 | no clear pattern |
| October | +5.54% | +5.91% | 59% | +4.89% | +56.02% | -24.98% | 27 | weak |
| November | +9.79% | +7.77% | 78% | +7.88% | +56.50% | -34.83% | 27 | strong |
| December | +3.32% | +2.69% | 63% | -1.53% | +43.03% | -32.81% | 27 | no clear pattern |
What drives Nvidia
- Data-centre GPU demand from cloud providers and AI labs, plus export rules for China.
- Reports roughly a month after the other mega caps, so its results often reset the AI trade.
Sell in May for Nvidia
From 2000 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +34.95% and the May to October half +21.05%. The winter half did better in 54% of 26 years. Compare all markets.
How Nvidia reacts to its earnings
Across 67 results announcements since 2010, Nvidia moved +2.51% on average over the two sessions around the release, rising 58% of the time. The typical move, up or down, was 6.18%, and the average move relative to the S&P 500 was +2.36%. The largest was +25.74% on November 10, 2016.
| Results filed | Two-day move | Versus S&P 500 | 20 days later |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 26, 2026 | +7.01% | +6.31% | +5.53% |
| May 20, 2026 | -0.50% | -1.75% | -4.39% |
| February 25, 2026 | -4.13% | -4.40% | -7.34% |
| November 19, 2025 | -0.40% | +0.79% | -3.98% |
| August 27, 2025 | -0.88% | -1.44% | -2.24% |
| May 28, 2025 | +2.72% | +2.88% | +14.41% |
| February 26, 2025 | -5.12% | -3.55% | -10.16% |
| November 20, 2024 | -0.23% | -0.77% | -11.10% |
| August 28, 2024 | -8.35% | -7.75% | -3.31% |
| May 22, 2024 | +8.82% | +9.83% | +32.70% |
| February 21, 2024 | +13.08% | +10.84% | +30.13% |
| November 21, 2023 | -3.36% | -3.56% | -4.55% |
Year by year
Latest insights on Nvidia
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The 30-year yield closed at its highest in over 24 years on the same day the Nasdaq printed its 23rd record of 2026.
Third-quarter earnings season starts with the big banks on October 13
Bank results will be the first read on loan demand and trading under a hiking Fed. A $22.6bn deal shows how fast single-stock moves can be.
Questions
What is the best month for Nvidia?
Since 1999, May has had the highest average move for Nvidia at +10.91%, rising in 75% of 28 years. November has the highest share of positive years (78%).
What is the worst month for Nvidia?
September has had the weakest average move at -1.65%, rising in 61% of 28 years.
How does Nvidia usually do in October?
Nvidia has averaged +5.54% in October (median +5.91%), rising in 59% of 27 years. We rate the pattern as weak.
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