Sugar: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, Sugar has averaged +3.28% and risen in 65% of 26 years (2000 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as moderate.
Last close 20.82 on October 6, 2026: +0.43% on the day, +38.71% this year, +18.09% so far in October.
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +2.36% | +2.09% | 65% | +2.68% | +22.75% | -13.78% | 26 | weak |
| February | +0.01% | +0.11% | 50% | +0.09% | +15.45% | -19.30% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| March | -6.19% | -3.81% | 31% | -5.29% | +8.53% | -31.25% | 26 | strong |
| April | -1.31% | -4.30% | 30% | -0.29% | +22.58% | -14.33% | 27 | weak |
| May | +0.44% | -0.86% | 44% | -1.08% | +46.32% | -10.00% | 27 | no clear pattern |
| June | +4.21% | +2.13% | 67% | -1.12% | +27.06% | -10.59% | 27 | strong |
| July | +3.03% | +3.81% | 63% | +0.50% | +22.35% | -17.31% | 27 | weak |
| August | -0.27% | +0.12% | 52% | +2.91% | +31.06% | -20.86% | 27 | no clear pattern |
| September | +2.53% | -0.05% | 48% | +2.46% | +28.10% | -15.30% | 27 | no clear pattern |
| October | +3.28% | +2.23% | 65% | +3.35% | +26.58% | -10.37% | 26 | moderate |
| November | +0.38% | -0.68% | 46% | -0.38% | +13.95% | -8.16% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| December | +0.82% | +0.70% | 54% | -2.42% | +19.04% | -20.97% | 26 | no clear pattern |
What drives Sugar
- Brazil's centre-south crush from April to November and how mills split cane between sugar and ethanol.
- Monsoon rains in India and Thai output.
Sell in May for Sugar
From 2001 to 2025, the November to April half averaged -4.04% and the May to October half +11.31%. The winter half did better in 28% of 25 years. Compare all markets.
Year by year
Latest insights on Sugar
Sugar surges, cocoa enters its weakest month, coffee jumps on Brazil rain
Three soft commodities with very different October records and very different supply stories.
Questions
What is the best month for Sugar?
Since 2000, June has had the highest average move for Sugar at +4.21%, rising in 67% of 27 years. June has the highest share of positive years (67%).
What is the worst month for Sugar?
March has had the weakest average move at -6.19%, rising in 31% of 26 years.
How does Sugar usually do in October?
Sugar has averaged +3.28% in October (median +2.23%), rising in 65% of 26 years. We rate the pattern as moderate.
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