Cocoa: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, Cocoa has averaged -2.80% and risen in 35% of 26 years (2000 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as moderate.
Last close 5,700.00 on October 6, 2026: -2.85% on the day, -6.02% this year, +6.20% so far in October.
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +1.91% | -0.21% | 50% | -2.20% | +34.56% | -31.33% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| February | +2.25% | +3.29% | 59% | +0.32% | +35.01% | -32.82% | 27 | no clear pattern |
| March | +0.65% | +1.12% | 59% | +6.10% | +50.02% | -21.43% | 27 | no clear pattern |
| April | +3.02% | +3.76% | 67% | +4.24% | +24.17% | -11.98% | 27 | strong |
| May | -1.40% | -1.87% | 48% | +0.51% | +12.72% | -28.08% | 27 | no clear pattern |
| June | +2.15% | +1.27% | 59% | -0.65% | +27.50% | -17.17% | 27 | no clear pattern |
| July | +0.92% | +1.40% | 59% | +1.03% | +23.13% | -12.85% | 27 | no clear pattern |
| August | +2.52% | +1.52% | 56% | +5.47% | +24.23% | -12.71% | 27 | no clear pattern |
| September | -1.44% | +0.39% | 52% | -5.66% | +16.18% | -20.11% | 27 | no clear pattern |
| October | -2.80% | -2.83% | 35% | -0.85% | +11.67% | -19.74% | 26 | moderate |
| November | +3.42% | +1.06% | 54% | +4.79% | +33.24% | -19.81% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| December | +2.59% | +2.61% | 58% | +2.53% | +26.63% | -13.46% | 26 | no clear pattern |
What drives Cocoa
- Ivory Coast and Ghana produce most of the world's cocoa; the main crop starts in October.
- Weather, crop disease and farmgate price policy drive supply.
Sell in May for Cocoa
From 2001 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +17.60% and the May to October half -2.63%. The winter half did better in 72% of 25 years. Compare all markets.
Year by year
Latest insights on Cocoa
Sugar surges, cocoa enters its weakest month, coffee jumps on Brazil rain
Three soft commodities with very different October records and very different supply stories.
Questions
What is the best month for Cocoa?
Since 2000, November has had the highest average move for Cocoa at +3.42%, rising in 54% of 26 years. April has the highest share of positive years (67%).
What is the worst month for Cocoa?
October has had the weakest average move at -2.80%, rising in 35% of 26 years.
How does Cocoa usually do in October?
Cocoa has averaged -2.80% in October (median -2.83%), rising in 35% of 26 years. We rate the pattern as moderate.
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