Fed rate decisions and market reactions
The latest Fed move was a 25 bp hike on September 16, 2026, taking the rate from 3.75% to 4.00%, the first move in this direction since the previous cycle. Across 52 hikes, the S&P 500 averaged -0.08% over the next 20 trading days.
We measured how 20 markets moved after every change in the federal funds target since 1994. Use it as context for the next FOMC meeting.
Reactions by type of decision
All changes
| Market | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 avg | Day 20 median | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 91 | +0.28% | -0.08% | +0.08% | +0.60% | 57% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 91 | +0.51% | +0.42% | +0.74% | +0.75% | 57% |
| Russell 2000 | 91 | +0.29% | -0.16% | +0.23% | +0.99% | 58% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 91 | +0.15% | -0.25% | +0.05% | +0.75% | 59% |
| DAX | 91 | +0.43% | +0.10% | +0.97% | +1.79% | 66% |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 41 | +0.49% | -0.01% | +0.67% | +1.64% | 63% |
| CAC 40 | 91 | +0.51% | 0.00% | +0.62% | +1.39% | 57% |
| FTSE 100 | 91 | +0.42% | +0.13% | +0.63% | +0.89% | 62% |
| Gold | 71 | +0.08% | +0.46% | +1.57% | +2.19% | 64% |
| Silver | 71 | +0.14% | +0.76% | +2.40% | +2.65% | 66% |
| WTI crude oil | 71 | +0.28% | -0.67% | -0.30% | +0.59% | 53% |
| Copper | 71 | +0.30% | +0.46% | +0.75% | +0.58% | 51% |
| Bitcoin | 32 | +0.47% | +0.52% | -1.42% | -1.35% | 50% |
| Ether | 28 | +1.51% | +2.30% | -0.45% | -3.19% | 39% |
| US 10-year Treasury yield | 91 | -1 bp | +1 bp | +2 bp | 0 bp | 48% |
| US 2-year Treasury yield | 91 | -1 bp | 0 bp | +1 bp | -1 bp | 47% |
| US dollar index (DXY) | 91 | -0.12% | +0.05% | +0.14% | +0.52% | 58% |
| EUR/USD | 58 | +0.29% | -0.11% | -0.01% | -0.15% | 47% |
| USD/JPY | 81 | +0.16% | +0.12% | +0.20% | +0.59% | 57% |
| JPMorgan Chase | 91 | +0.81% | -0.01% | +0.51% | +0.69% | 52% |
Hikes
| Market | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 avg | Day 20 median | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 52 | +0.20% | -0.18% | -0.08% | +0.01% | 51% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 52 | +0.37% | +0.20% | +0.35% | +0.64% | 57% |
| Russell 2000 | 52 | +0.26% | -0.31% | -0.17% | +0.23% | 55% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 52 | +0.11% | -0.30% | -0.19% | +0.27% | 55% |
| DAX | 52 | +0.56% | +0.26% | +0.59% | +1.49% | 69% |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 21 | +0.48% | -0.10% | +0.65% | +1.07% | 60% |
| CAC 40 | 52 | +0.52% | +0.11% | +0.46% | +1.59% | 57% |
| FTSE 100 | 52 | +0.29% | +0.08% | +0.19% | +0.61% | 61% |
| Gold | 38 | +0.06% | +0.55% | +1.09% | +2.14% | 59% |
| Silver | 38 | +0.08% | +0.99% | +1.58% | +2.40% | 62% |
| WTI crude oil | 38 | +0.23% | +0.25% | +1.94% | +1.45% | 57% |
| Copper | 38 | +0.20% | +1.45% | +1.75% | +1.33% | 59% |
| Bitcoin | 21 | +0.41% | -0.17% | -1.41% | +0.48% | 52% |
| Ether | 17 | +1.37% | +2.89% | +2.72% | -2.50% | 41% |
| US 10-year Treasury yield | 52 | -2 bp | +1 bp | +2 bp | -2 bp | 41% |
| US 2-year Treasury yield | 52 | 0 bp | +4 bp | +9 bp | +5 bp | 61% |
| US dollar index (DXY) | 52 | -0.11% | +0.05% | -0.10% | +0.23% | 53% |
| EUR/USD | 38 | +0.09% | -0.11% | +0.02% | -0.15% | 43% |
| USD/JPY | 45 | +0.10% | +0.06% | +0.06% | +0.24% | 50% |
| JPMorgan Chase | 52 | +0.36% | -0.71% | -0.35% | -0.43% | 45% |
Cuts
| Market | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 avg | Day 20 median | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 39 | +0.38% | +0.05% | +0.29% | +1.18% | 64% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 39 | +0.69% | +0.72% | +1.24% | +1.44% | 56% |
| Russell 2000 | 39 | +0.34% | +0.03% | +0.75% | +2.01% | 62% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 39 | +0.22% | -0.17% | +0.37% | +1.62% | 64% |
| DAX | 39 | +0.27% | -0.10% | +1.46% | +2.40% | 62% |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 20 | +0.51% | +0.09% | +0.68% | +1.64% | 65% |
| CAC 40 | 39 | +0.50% | -0.14% | +0.83% | +1.14% | 56% |
| FTSE 100 | 39 | +0.58% | +0.18% | +1.20% | +1.99% | 64% |
| Gold | 33 | +0.11% | +0.36% | +2.10% | +2.68% | 70% |
| Silver | 33 | +0.22% | +0.50% | +3.32% | +2.97% | 70% |
| WTI crude oil | 33 | +0.33% | -1.73% | -2.83% | -0.52% | 48% |
| Copper | 33 | +0.41% | -0.67% | -0.36% | -1.84% | 42% |
| Bitcoin | 11 | +0.58% | +1.84% | -1.44% | -3.83% | 45% |
| Ether | 11 | +1.72% | +1.39% | -5.34% | -5.10% | 36% |
| US 10-year Treasury yield | 39 | 0 bp | +1 bp | +2 bp | +1 bp | 56% |
| US 2-year Treasury yield | 39 | -2 bp | -5 bp | -10 bp | -11 bp | 28% |
| US dollar index (DXY) | 39 | -0.14% | +0.04% | +0.46% | +0.59% | 64% |
| EUR/USD | 20 | +0.68% | -0.11% | -0.08% | +0.22% | 55% |
| USD/JPY | 36 | +0.23% | +0.20% | +0.37% | +0.62% | 67% |
| JPMorgan Chase | 39 | +1.41% | +0.92% | +1.65% | +2.65% | 62% |
First hike of a cycle
| Market | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 avg | Day 20 median | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7 | +0.33% | +0.50% | -1.88% | -2.69% | 33% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 7 | +0.69% | +1.53% | -2.49% | -1.66% | 33% |
| Russell 2000 | 7 | +0.53% | +0.15% | -3.75% | -2.45% | 17% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 7 | +0.01% | -0.23% | -1.81% | -1.94% | 33% |
| DAX | 7 | +1.40% | +0.90% | -2.59% | -3.43% | 33% |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 3 | +2.60% | +2.93% | -1.72% | -1.72% | 50% |
| CAC 40 | 7 | +1.37% | +0.90% | -2.57% | -2.67% | 17% |
| FTSE 100 | 7 | +0.62% | +1.05% | -0.24% | +0.03% | 50% |
| Gold | 4 | +0.01% | +1.18% | +1.22% | +2.14% | 67% |
| Silver | 4 | -0.23% | +3.09% | +4.87% | +3.51% | 100% |
| WTI crude oil | 4 | +0.52% | +2.64% | +2.85% | +4.31% | 67% |
| Copper | 4 | +0.81% | +4.70% | +1.81% | +4.50% | 67% |
| Bitcoin | 3 | +3.35% | +5.41% | +9.60% | +13.46% | 67% |
| US 10-year Treasury yield | 7 | +1 bp | +3 bp | +15 bp | +2 bp | 50% |
| US 2-year Treasury yield | 7 | +1 bp | +5 bp | +17 bp | +5 bp | 50% |
| US dollar index (DXY) | 7 | +0.13% | +0.11% | 0.00% | +0.51% | 67% |
| EUR/USD | 4 | +0.23% | +0.12% | -0.42% | -0.39% | 0% |
| USD/JPY | 6 | +0.32% | +0.76% | +0.88% | +2.49% | 60% |
| JPMorgan Chase | 7 | +1.20% | -0.53% | -5.04% | -3.14% | 33% |
First cut of a cycle
| Market | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 avg | Day 20 median | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6 | +1.30% | -0.28% | +2.35% | +2.73% | 83% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 6 | +2.71% | +0.07% | +5.13% | +4.18% | 67% |
| Russell 2000 | 6 | +1.34% | -0.93% | +2.72% | +3.30% | 83% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 6 | +0.76% | -0.53% | +1.62% | +2.50% | 83% |
| DAX | 6 | +0.32% | -1.43% | +3.08% | +5.15% | 67% |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 3 | +0.50% | +0.48% | +1.65% | +1.77% | 67% |
| CAC 40 | 6 | -0.23% | -1.51% | +2.10% | +2.15% | 83% |
| FTSE 100 | 6 | -0.32% | -1.74% | +1.36% | +2.65% | 67% |
| Gold | 4 | -0.04% | +2.05% | +3.96% | +4.56% | 75% |
| Silver | 4 | -0.70% | +2.60% | +6.59% | +6.70% | 100% |
| WTI crude oil | 4 | +1.11% | -1.18% | +1.55% | +2.32% | 50% |
| Copper | 4 | +0.38% | +2.07% | +2.06% | +2.90% | 75% |
| US 10-year Treasury yield | 6 | +2 bp | -9 bp | +9 bp | +22 bp | 83% |
| US 2-year Treasury yield | 6 | -3 bp | -20 bp | -7 bp | -10 bp | 50% |
| US dollar index (DXY) | 6 | +0.08% | -0.30% | +0.25% | +0.49% | 50% |
| EUR/USD | 3 | +0.30% | +0.75% | +0.04% | -0.35% | 33% |
| USD/JPY | 5 | -0.12% | -0.11% | -1.12% | +1.09% | 60% |
| JPMorgan Chase | 6 | +4.11% | +1.88% | +10.30% | +9.04% | 83% |
Cuts of 50 bp or more
| Market | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 avg | Day 20 median | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 18 | +0.79% | -0.15% | +0.94% | +1.79% | 78% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 18 | +1.28% | +0.82% | +2.23% | +2.99% | 67% |
| Russell 2000 | 18 | +0.93% | +0.18% | +1.58% | +3.57% | 72% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 18 | +0.51% | -0.65% | +1.17% | +2.12% | 78% |
| DAX | 18 | +0.60% | +0.04% | +2.97% | +3.83% | 72% |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 9 | +0.86% | +0.89% | +1.09% | +1.51% | 78% |
| CAC 40 | 18 | +1.05% | +0.12% | +2.09% | +2.26% | 67% |
| FTSE 100 | 18 | +1.10% | +0.76% | +2.73% | +3.01% | 72% |
| Gold | 18 | +0.20% | +0.29% | +0.91% | +1.53% | 67% |
| Silver | 18 | +0.31% | +0.27% | +0.69% | +1.85% | 67% |
| WTI crude oil | 18 | +0.34% | -3.31% | -5.98% | +0.39% | 50% |
| Copper | 18 | +0.47% | +0.19% | -0.63% | -2.16% | 44% |
| Bitcoin | 3 | +4.41% | +3.71% | +0.61% | +3.20% | 67% |
| Ether | 3 | +5.71% | +4.96% | -7.45% | +3.42% | 67% |
| US 10-year Treasury yield | 18 | +3 bp | +3 bp | +6 bp | +17 bp | 67% |
| US 2-year Treasury yield | 18 | -2 bp | -7 bp | -9 bp | -16 bp | 33% |
| US dollar index (DXY) | 18 | -0.31% | -0.20% | +0.80% | +1.16% | 72% |
| EUR/USD | 9 | +1.51% | +0.33% | -0.18% | +0.79% | 67% |
| USD/JPY | 18 | +0.69% | +0.27% | +1.43% | +1.40% | 72% |
| JPMorgan Chase | 18 | +2.10% | -0.09% | +0.66% | +3.60% | 67% |
Recent decisions
| Date | Move | Rate after | S&P 500, 5 days | Gold, 5 days | 10-year yield, 5 days | Dollar index, 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 16, 2026 | +25 bp | 4.00% | +2.36% | +1.01% | -4 bp | +0.95% |
| December 10, 2025 | -25 bp | 3.75% | -0.59% | +2.27% | -3 bp | -1.08% |
| October 29, 2025 | -25 bp | 4.00% | -1.73% | -0.57% | +11 bp | +1.55% |
| September 17, 2025 | -25 bp | 4.25% | +0.76% | +2.43% | +8 bp | +0.65% |
| December 18, 2024 | -25 bp | 4.50% | -0.17% | -1.00% | +19 bp | +1.22% |
| November 7, 2024 | -25 bp | 4.75% | +0.95% | -3.36% | +1 bp | +1.32% |
| September 18, 2024 | -50 bp | 5.00% | +1.75% | +3.26% | +9 bp | -0.52% |
| July 26, 2023 | +25 bp | 5.50% | +0.20% | +0.77% | +14 bp | +0.94% |
| May 3, 2023 | +25 bp | 5.25% | -0.01% | +0.97% | +9 bp | -0.31% |
| March 22, 2023 | +25 bp | 5.00% | -0.79% | +1.67% | -4 bp | -0.80% |
| February 1, 2023 | +25 bp | 4.75% | +2.14% | -2.32% | +15 bp | +1.30% |
| December 14, 2022 | +50 bp | 4.50% | -4.93% | -0.01% | +18 bp | -0.01% |
| November 2, 2022 | +75 bp | 4.00% | -0.73% | +4.02% | +7 bp | -1.67% |
| September 21, 2022 | +75 bp | 3.25% | -5.41% | -2.09% | +40 bp | +3.53% |
| July 27, 2022 | +75 bp | 2.50% | +4.34% | +4.19% | -6 bp | -0.89% |
| June 15, 2022 | +75 bp | 1.75% | +0.65% | +1.37% | -33 bp | -1.25% |
How we measure it
Each reaction starts at the last close before the announcement day. Day 1 is the close on the announcement day, day 5 and day 20 are five and twenty sessions later. Decision dates come from the target-rate history on FRED (DFEDTAR until 2008 and DFEDTARU after), starting in February 1994 when the Fed began announcing decisions. Changes in the yield are shown in basis points. The average hides a wide spread, and markets often price a decision well before it happens, so the surprise matters more than the move itself.
Related insights
A 29,000-job September meets a Fed that just restarted hiking
The Fed's first hike of a new cycle came just over two weeks before a weak payrolls print. History after first hikes is mixed for stocks over a month.
Yields at 24-year highs while the Nasdaq keeps setting records
The 30-year yield closed at its highest in over 24 years on the same day the Nasdaq printed its 23rd record of 2026.
The euro slides to a 17-month low despite two ECB hikes
French fiscal worries hit the CAC 40 while the dollar rose with Treasury yields.
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