Russell 2000: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, Russell 2000 has averaged -0.54% and risen in 56% of 39 years (1987 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as no clear pattern.
Last close 2,830.30 on October 6, 2026: -0.59% on the day, +14.04% this year, +1.20% so far in October.
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +0.74% | +1.25% | 54% | +1.98% | +11.19% | -11.20% | 39 | no clear pattern |
| February | +1.01% | +0.97% | 59% | +0.05% | +16.42% | -12.29% | 39 | no clear pattern |
| March | +0.41% | +1.12% | 67% | -3.49% | +8.67% | -21.90% | 39 | moderate |
| April | +1.24% | +0.81% | 59% | +1.18% | +15.33% | -9.95% | 39 | no clear pattern |
| May | +1.38% | +2.12% | 67% | +1.56% | +11.01% | -7.90% | 39 | strong |
| June | +0.80% | +0.60% | 64% | +2.34% | +8.62% | -8.37% | 39 | weak |
| July | +0.45% | +1.33% | 56% | +2.71% | +10.38% | -15.18% | 39 | no clear pattern |
| August | -0.33% | +1.64% | 54% | +0.42% | +7.44% | -19.49% | 39 | no clear pattern |
| September | -0.56% | +0.56% | 56% | -1.87% | +12.30% | -13.59% | 39 | no clear pattern |
| October | -0.54% | +1.76% | 56% | -0.18% | +15.04% | -30.77% | 39 | no clear pattern |
| November | +2.24% | +3.01% | 69% | +5.59% | +18.29% | -11.98% | 39 | strong |
| December | +2.38% | +2.63% | 77% | -0.04% | +12.05% | -12.05% | 39 | strong |
What drives Russell 2000
- US small caps carry more floating-rate debt, so they react strongly to rate expectations.
- Historically sensitive to domestic growth and credit conditions; the so-called January effect is a classic small-cap pattern.
Sell in May for Russell 2000
From 1988 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +8.07% and the May to October half +2.01%. The winter half did better in 66% of 38 years. Compare all markets.
How Russell 2000 reacted to events
Average move from the close before each event. Day 1 is the close on the event day.
| Event | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed hikes | 52 | +0.26% | -0.31% | -0.17% | 55% |
| Fed cuts | 39 | +0.34% | +0.03% | +0.75% | 62% |
| First Fed hike of a cycle | 7 | +0.53% | +0.15% | -3.75% | 17% |
| First Fed cut of a cycle | 6 | +1.34% | -0.93% | +2.72% | 83% |
| Fed cuts of 50 bp or more | 18 | +0.93% | +0.18% | +1.58% | 72% |
| ECB hikes | 31 | +0.28% | -1.03% | -0.17% | 60% |
| ECB cuts | 30 | -0.66% | -1.68% | +0.16% | 50% |
Year by year
Latest insights on Russell 2000
The midterm-year fourth quarter has been the strongest stretch of the four-year cycle
2026 is a US midterm year. Since 1928 the S&P 500 has risen in most midterm-year fourth quarters.
Questions
What is the best month for Russell 2000?
Since 1987, December has had the highest average move for Russell 2000 at +2.38%, rising in 77% of 39 years. December has the highest share of positive years (77%).
What is the worst month for Russell 2000?
September has had the weakest average move at -0.56%, rising in 56% of 39 years.
How does Russell 2000 usually do in October?
Russell 2000 has averaged -0.54% in October (median +1.76%), rising in 56% of 39 years. We rate the pattern as no clear pattern.
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Build a free watchlistNot investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.