Silver: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, Silver has averaged +0.85% and risen in 62% of 26 years (2000 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as weak.
Last close 61.17 on October 6, 2026: +0.49% on the day, -12.78% this year, +1.78% so far in October.
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +3.84% | +3.56% | 69% | +3.23% | +19.22% | -8.85% | 26 | strong |
| February | +2.33% | +3.01% | 54% | -0.27% | +19.98% | -11.74% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| March | +0.51% | -0.73% | 42% | -0.75% | +18.52% | -19.41% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| April | +0.30% | -1.31% | 46% | -0.03% | +28.28% | -23.41% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| May | +1.03% | +0.50% | 54% | +3.78% | +26.78% | -21.16% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| June | -2.96% | -3.67% | 31% | -3.24% | +16.34% | -21.34% | 26 | strong |
| July | +3.37% | +1.52% | 62% | +3.81% | +30.46% | -5.18% | 26 | moderate |
| August | +1.70% | -0.15% | 46% | +3.16% | +19.61% | -23.34% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| September | -0.70% | +0.55% | 52% | -2.46% | +15.06% | -27.96% | 27 | no clear pattern |
| October | +0.85% | +0.84% | 62% | +1.86% | +14.30% | -20.45% | 26 | weak |
| November | +1.77% | -1.63% | 42% | +0.95% | +17.61% | -9.74% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| December | +2.42% | +3.31% | 58% | +5.88% | +24.25% | -14.84% | 26 | no clear pattern |
What drives Silver
- Half precious metal, half industrial metal: solar panels and electronics are a growing share of demand.
- Moves with gold but with larger swings in both directions.
Sell in May for Silver
From 2001 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +10.39% and the May to October half +4.13%. The winter half did better in 52% of 25 years. Compare all markets.
How Silver reacted to events
Average move from the close before each event. Day 1 is the close on the event day.
| Event | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed hikes | 38 | +0.08% | +0.99% | +1.58% | 62% |
| Fed cuts | 33 | +0.22% | +0.50% | +3.32% | 70% |
| First Fed hike of a cycle | 4 | -0.23% | +3.09% | +4.87% | 100% |
| First Fed cut of a cycle | 4 | -0.70% | +2.60% | +6.59% | 100% |
| Fed cuts of 50 bp or more | 18 | +0.31% | +0.27% | +0.69% | 67% |
| ECB hikes | 26 | -0.72% | -0.24% | +0.88% | 52% |
| ECB cuts | 29 | -0.17% | +0.27% | +1.10% | 48% |
Year by year
Latest insights on Silver
Gold holds its ground despite yields at multi-decade highs
Real yields would normally weigh on gold. Central-bank buying is one reason the pullback has stayed contained.
Questions
What is the best month for Silver?
Since 2000, January has had the highest average move for Silver at +3.84%, rising in 69% of 26 years. January has the highest share of positive years (69%).
What is the worst month for Silver?
June has had the weakest average move at -2.96%, rising in 31% of 26 years.
How does Silver usually do in October?
Silver has averaged +0.85% in October (median +0.84%), rising in 62% of 26 years. We rate the pattern as weak.
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