CAC 40: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, CAC 40 has averaged +1.75% and risen in 72% of 36 years (1990 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as strong.
Last close 7,865.07 on October 6, 2026: +0.40% on the day, -3.49% this year, -1.25% so far in October.
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +1.01% | +1.88% | 58% | +1.70% | +9.40% | -13.26% | 36 | no clear pattern |
| February | +1.25% | +2.17% | 58% | +1.03% | +11.93% | -10.52% | 36 | no clear pattern |
| March | +0.49% | +1.27% | 64% | -1.48% | +13.25% | -17.21% | 36 | no clear pattern |
| April | +2.13% | +2.83% | 70% | +2.04% | +12.80% | -6.16% | 37 | strong |
| May | -0.51% | +0.10% | 54% | -0.64% | +5.34% | -8.11% | 37 | no clear pattern |
| June | -1.08% | -1.11% | 43% | -0.11% | +10.62% | -11.56% | 37 | no clear pattern |
| July | +0.88% | +1.26% | 59% | +1.47% | +9.67% | -12.38% | 37 | no clear pattern |
| August | -1.27% | -1.18% | 35% | -0.74% | +6.63% | -13.99% | 37 | moderate |
| September | -1.91% | +0.05% | 51% | -0.56% | +8.58% | -17.49% | 37 | weak |
| October | +1.75% | +1.99% | 72% | +0.30% | +13.41% | -13.52% | 36 | strong |
| November | +1.54% | +1.40% | 61% | +3.11% | +20.12% | -7.34% | 36 | moderate |
| December | +1.32% | +1.63% | 67% | +0.95% | +11.55% | -7.90% | 36 | strong |
What drives CAC 40
- France's large caps, dominated by luxury, energy, aerospace and banks.
- Luxury names make it unusually sensitive to Chinese and US consumer spending.
- French fiscal and political headlines move bank stocks and the spread over German bonds.
Sell in May for CAC 40
From 1991 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +8.23% and the May to October half -1.78%. The winter half did better in 74% of 35 years. Compare all markets.
How CAC 40 reacted to events
Average move from the close before each event. Day 1 is the close on the event day.
| Event | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed hikes | 52 | +0.52% | +0.11% | +0.46% | 57% |
| Fed cuts | 39 | +0.50% | -0.14% | +0.83% | 56% |
| First Fed hike of a cycle | 7 | +1.37% | +0.90% | -2.57% | 17% |
| First Fed cut of a cycle | 6 | -0.23% | -1.51% | +2.10% | 83% |
| Fed cuts of 50 bp or more | 18 | +1.05% | +0.12% | +2.09% | 67% |
| ECB hikes | 31 | +0.08% | -0.18% | +0.87% | 70% |
| ECB cuts | 30 | -0.38% | -1.73% | -0.69% | 47% |
Year by year
Latest insights on CAC 40
The euro slides to a 17-month low despite two ECB hikes
French fiscal worries hit the CAC 40 while the dollar rose with Treasury yields.
Questions
What is the best month for CAC 40?
Since 1990, April has had the highest average move for CAC 40 at +2.13%, rising in 70% of 37 years. October has the highest share of positive years (72%).
What is the worst month for CAC 40?
September has had the weakest average move at -1.91%, rising in 51% of 37 years.
How does CAC 40 usually do in October?
CAC 40 has averaged +1.75% in October (median +1.99%), rising in 72% of 36 years. We rate the pattern as strong.
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Build a free watchlistNot investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.