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GBP/USD: seasonality, event history and insights

In October, GBP/USD has averaged -0.21% and risen in 50% of 22 years (2004 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as no clear pattern.

Last close 1.3219 on October 6, 2026: -0.18% on the day, -1.85% this year, -0.11% so far in October.

Last close
1.3219
Day
-0.18%
1 month
-2.31%
Year to date
-1.85%
1 year
-1.60%
From 52-week high
-4.39%
+1.2%+0.6%-0.6%-1.2%Jan: average +0.52%, up in 57% of 23 yearsJanFeb: average -0.38%, up in 43% of 23 yearsFebMar: average -0.45%, up in 35% of 23 yearsMarApr: average +1.20%, up in 78% of 23 yearsAprMay: average -0.38%, up in 35% of 23 yearsMayJun: average -0.31%, up in 52% of 23 yearsJunJul: average +0.53%, up in 65% of 23 yearsJulAug: average -0.58%, up in 39% of 23 yearsAugSep: average -0.69%, up in 39% of 23 yearsSepOct: average -0.21%, up in 50% of 22 yearsOctNov: average +0.14%, up in 55% of 22 yearsNovDec: average -0.37%, up in 45% of 22 yearsDec
GBP/USD: average return by calendar month, 2004 to 2026. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.

Month by month

MonthAverageMedianUp yearsLast 10 yearsBestWorstYearsPattern
January+0.52%+0.20%57%+1.39%+5.32% 2018-3.15% 201523no clear pattern
February-0.38%-0.22%43%-0.39%+2.42% 2004-4.67% 201023no clear pattern
March-0.45%-0.29%35%-0.57%+3.69% 2016-4.01% 202023weak
April+1.20%+1.50%78%+0.41%+5.08% 2006-5.14% 202223strong
May-0.38%-0.66%35%-0.38%+9.46% 2009-5.09% 201023weak
June-0.31%+0.19%52%-0.48%+2.91% 2010-7.99% 201623no clear pattern
July+0.53%+0.88%65%+0.68%+6.56% 2020-4.07% 201923weak
August-0.58%-0.60%39%-0.23%+2.57% 2005-8.13% 200823weak
September-0.69%-1.65%39%-1.01%+4.27% 2013-4.34% 201123weak
October-0.21%+0.05%50%-0.37%+4.95% 2019-9.81% 200822no clear pattern
November+0.14%+0.07%55%+1.00%+4.36% 2023-4.28% 200822no clear pattern
December-0.37%-0.48%45%+0.48%+2.24% 2020-4.74% 200822no clear pattern

Returns from the last close of the previous month to the last close of the month. Source: Yahoo Finance (GBPUSD=X). Download monthly data (CSV).

What drives GBP/USD

Sell in May for GBP/USD

From 2005 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +0.63% and the May to October half -1.80%. The winter half did better in 67% of 21 years. Compare all markets.

Year by year

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
20262.5-2.3-2.42.4-0.3-1.41.60.6-2.3
2025-1.01.42.73.60.71.6-3.41.9-0.6-2.10.61.7
2024-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.51.4-0.71.52.61.6-3.2-2.0-1.2
20232.5-2.42.70.9-0.71.61.9-1.1-4.0-0.34.40.3
2022-0.7-0.2-1.8-5.11.5-4.10.3-4.2-4.23.83.00.9
20210.72.1-1.91.51.6-2.40.9-1.5-2.42.8-3.51.4
2020-0.2-1.5-4.00.8-1.2-0.16.61.8-3.70.53.12.2
20193.31.5-2.0-0.9-2.50.5-4.10.20.95.00.11.6
20185.3-1.80.9-1.8-3.5-1.60.5-0.90.5-2.80.6-0.7
20171.7-0.50.33.3-0.71.61.0-1.73.9-1.61.60.2
2016-3.1-3.53.71.60.2-8.0-2.3-0.5-1.0-5.82.3-1.6
2015-3.12.3-4.04.2-0.72.7-0.8-1.2-1.71.1-1.9-1.5
20140.01.2-0.31.1-0.61.9-0.7-1.9-2.1-1.5-1.7-1.0
2013-2.3-4.00.21.9-1.70.2-0.11.74.3-0.92.00.9
20121.91.40.22.0-4.90.21.30.52.8-1.0-0.20.8
20112.51.7-0.23.6-1.0-2.51.8-0.4-4.33.3-3.2-1.2

Monthly change in percent. Most recent years at the top.

Latest insights on GBP/USD

Central banks and rates

The euro slides to a 17-month low despite two ECB hikes

French fiscal worries hit the CAC 40 while the dollar rose with Treasury yields.

Oct 6EUR/USD, CAC 40, Euro Stoxx 50, DAX

Questions

What is the best month for GBP/USD?

Since 2004, April has had the highest average move for GBP/USD at +1.20%, rising in 78% of 23 years. April has the highest share of positive years (78%).

What is the worst month for GBP/USD?

September has had the weakest average move at -0.69%, rising in 39% of 23 years.

How does GBP/USD usually do in October?

GBP/USD has averaged -0.21% in October (median +0.05%), rising in 50% of 22 years. We rate the pattern as no clear pattern.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.