What usually happens in August

The most consistent August strength has come from Nvidia (+7.78%, up 75% of years), Apple (+5.38%, up 63% of years), USD/TRY (+3.30%, up 77% of years), Gold (+2.50%, up 73% of years). The most consistent weakness: Lean hogs (-13.86%, up 8% of years), Hang Seng (-1.54%, up 40% of years), CAC 40 (-1.27%, up 35% of years), USD/JPY (-1.00%, up 37% of years).

For the S&P 500, August has averaged +0.70% with gains in 59% of years, and an average absolute move of 3.83%.

Stronger in August

Nvidia+7.78% 75% up
Apple+5.38% 63% up
USD/TRY+3.30% 77% up
Gold+2.50% 73% up
USD/BRL+2.02% 64% up

Weaker in August

Lean hogs-13.86% 8% up
Hang Seng-1.54% 40% up
CAC 40-1.27% 35% up
USD/JPY-1.00% 37% up
German 10-year Bund yield-5 bp 31% up

Every market in August

US indices

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
S&P 500	+0.70%	+0.88%	59%	99	no clear pattern
Nasdaq Composite	+0.40%	+1.56%	57%	56	no clear pattern
Russell 2000	-0.33%	+1.64%	54%	39	no clear pattern
Dow Jones Industrial Average	-0.45%	+0.63%	57%	35	no clear pattern

European indices

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
FTSE 100	-0.02%	+0.23%	56%	43	no clear pattern
IBEX 35	-0.34%	-0.21%	50%	34	no clear pattern
Swiss Market Index	-0.59%	+0.25%	50%	36	no clear pattern
FTSE MIB	-0.73%	+0.57%	55%	29	no clear pattern
Euro Stoxx 50	-1.12%	-0.28%	45%	20	no clear pattern
CAC 40	-1.27%	-1.18%	35%	37	moderate
DAX	-1.84%	-0.09%	49%	39	weak

Asia and emerging markets

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Ibovespa	+1.91%	+1.45%	59%	34	no clear pattern
Nikkei 225	-0.35%	-0.07%	50%	62	no clear pattern
KOSPI	-0.83%	-0.65%	43%	30	no clear pattern
BIST 100	-1.28%	-0.09%	50%	30	no clear pattern
Hang Seng	-1.54%	-0.85%	40%	40	moderate

US stocks

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Nvidia	+7.78%	+6.62%	75%	28	strong
Tesla	+6.70%	+1.18%	53%	17	no clear pattern
Apple	+5.38%	+4.67%	63%	46	strong
Microsoft	+1.79%	+2.21%	61%	41	weak
Amazon	+1.52%	+0.32%	50%	30	no clear pattern
Meta Platforms	+1.32%	+1.83%	67%	15	weak
Berkshire Hathaway	+1.25%	+1.91%	61%	31	weak
Walmart	+1.12%	+1.02%	54%	54	no clear pattern
Eli Lilly	+0.70%	-0.02%	49%	55	no clear pattern
Exxon Mobil	+0.37%	+0.04%	51%	65	no clear pattern
JPMorgan Chase	+0.15%	+0.09%	51%	47	no clear pattern
Alphabet	-0.07%	-0.40%	45%	22	no clear pattern

European stocks

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Novo Nordisk	+2.76%	+1.68%	54%	26	no clear pattern
Nestlé	+0.64%	+0.77%	54%	37	no clear pattern
TotalEnergies	+0.26%	+0.06%	52%	27	no clear pattern
Airbus	+0.08%	-0.65%	44%	25	no clear pattern
SAP	-0.21%	+1.06%	59%	29	no clear pattern
Shell	-1.37%	-0.55%	37%	30	weak
LVMH	-1.41%	-1.98%	41%	27	no clear pattern
Siemens	-1.50%	-3.01%	43%	30	no clear pattern
Allianz	-2.05%	-0.76%	47%	30	no clear pattern
ASML	-2.53%	-0.78%	41%	29	no clear pattern

Crypto

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Solana	+57.10%	+16.49%	57%	7	no clear pattern
Bitcoin	+1.95%	-7.19%	33%	12	no clear pattern
BNB	+1.82%	-1.53%	44%	9	no clear pattern
Ether	+1.73%	-7.60%	44%	9	no clear pattern
XRP	-0.29%	-9.24%	33%	9	weak

Energy

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
European natural gas (TTF)	+4.43%	0.00%	29%	34	no clear pattern
Heating oil (ULSD)	+2.50%	+0.96%	50%	26	weak
Natural gas (Henry Hub)	+0.48%	+1.36%	58%	26	no clear pattern
Gasoline (RBOB)	+0.08%	-1.82%	35%	26	no clear pattern
WTI crude oil	-0.71%	-0.76%	50%	26	no clear pattern
Brent crude oil	-0.90%	-2.00%	40%	20	no clear pattern

Metals

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Gold	+2.50%	+3.06%	73%	26	strong
Silver	+1.70%	-0.15%	46%	26	no clear pattern
Platinum	+0.92%	+2.07%	58%	26	no clear pattern
Nickel	+0.63%	-1.33%	41%	34	no clear pattern
Aluminium	+0.27%	-0.23%	47%	34	no clear pattern
Copper	-0.98%	-1.54%	42%	26	no clear pattern
Palladium	-1.46%	-0.90%	46%	26	no clear pattern

Grains and oilseeds

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Corn	+0.42%	-0.54%	44%	27	no clear pattern
Wheat	-0.29%	-0.57%	44%	27	no clear pattern
Soybeans	-1.85%	-4.31%	35%	26	weak

Softs

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Cocoa	+2.52%	+1.52%	56%	27	no clear pattern
Cotton	+1.44%	+1.12%	52%	27	no clear pattern
Coffee (Arabica)	+1.34%	-0.21%	48%	27	no clear pattern
Sugar	-0.27%	+0.12%	52%	27	no clear pattern

Livestock

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Live cattle	+0.56%	-0.28%	42%	26	no clear pattern
Lean hogs	-13.86%	-14.06%	8%	26	strong

Rates

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
US 2-year Treasury yield	0 bp	-3 bp	41%	51	no clear pattern
US 10-year Treasury yield	-4 bp	-4 bp	48%	65	no clear pattern
German 10-year Bund yield	-5 bp	-9 bp	31%	71	strong

Currencies

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
USD/TRY	+3.30%	+1.50%	77%	22	strong
USD/BRL	+2.02%	+1.04%	64%	22	strong
US dollar index (DXY)	+0.16%	-0.07%	48%	56	no clear pattern
EUR/USD	+0.06%	+0.39%	57%	23	no clear pattern
GBP/USD	-0.58%	-0.60%	39%	23	weak
USD/JPY	-1.00%	-1.46%	37%	30	strong

Pattern ratings combine consistency across both halves of the sample, the share of up years and a t-statistic. See the methodology.

July · September

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.