What usually happens in September

The most consistent September strength has come from Natural gas (Henry Hub) (+8.58%, up 67% of years), Lean hogs (+3.90%, up 69% of years), Ibovespa (+2.11%, up 71% of years), USD/TRY (+1.08%, up 73% of years). The most consistent weakness: Gasoline (RBOB) (-6.90%, up 23% of years), DAX (-2.08%, up 38% of years), Novo Nordisk (-1.88%, up 38% of years), Nestlé (-0.77%, up 30% of years).

For the S&P 500, September has averaged -1.11% with gains in 44% of years, and an average absolute move of 3.96%.

Stronger in September

Natural gas (Henry Hub)+8.58% 67% up
Lean hogs+3.90% 69% up
Ibovespa+2.11% 71% up
USD/TRY+1.08% 73% up

Weaker in September

Gasoline (RBOB)-6.90% 23% up
DAX-2.08% 38% up
Novo Nordisk-1.88% 38% up
Nestlé-0.77% 30% up

Every market in September

US indices

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Russell 2000	-0.56%	+0.56%	56%	39	no clear pattern
Nasdaq Composite	-0.72%	+0.35%	54%	56	no clear pattern
Dow Jones Industrial Average	-0.80%	-0.32%	49%	35	no clear pattern
S&P 500	-1.11%	-0.45%	44%	99	weak

European indices

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Euro Stoxx 50	-0.25%	+0.37%	55%	20	no clear pattern
IBEX 35	-0.42%	+0.25%	50%	34	no clear pattern
FTSE 100	-0.83%	-0.78%	47%	43	no clear pattern
Swiss Market Index	-0.86%	-0.29%	50%	36	no clear pattern
FTSE MIB	-1.85%	-0.74%	41%	29	weak
CAC 40	-1.91%	+0.05%	51%	37	weak
DAX	-2.08%	-1.43%	38%	39	moderate

Asia and emerging markets

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Ibovespa	+2.11%	+2.95%	71%	34	moderate
BIST 100	+1.44%	+0.48%	53%	30	no clear pattern
Hang Seng	-0.06%	+0.38%	50%	40	no clear pattern
Nikkei 225	-0.34%	-0.08%	48%	62	no clear pattern
KOSPI	-1.21%	+0.17%	57%	30	no clear pattern

US stocks

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Amazon	+5.31%	+1.45%	53%	30	no clear pattern
Alphabet	+2.65%	+1.80%	65%	23	no clear pattern
Meta Platforms	+2.54%	+0.53%	53%	15	no clear pattern
Tesla	+1.96%	-1.41%	41%	17	no clear pattern
Microsoft	+0.65%	+1.11%	59%	41	no clear pattern
Berkshire Hathaway	+0.42%	-0.05%	48%	31	no clear pattern
Exxon Mobil	+0.41%	-0.36%	48%	65	no clear pattern
Walmart	+0.01%	+0.76%	56%	55	no clear pattern
Eli Lilly	-0.49%	-0.73%	45%	55	no clear pattern
Nvidia	-1.65%	+1.70%	61%	28	no clear pattern
JPMorgan Chase	-1.95%	+0.12%	51%	47	no clear pattern
Apple	-3.68%	-1.80%	37%	46	weak

European stocks

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
TotalEnergies	+0.03%	+0.11%	56%	27	no clear pattern
Shell	-0.73%	-1.90%	45%	31	no clear pattern
Nestlé	-0.77%	-0.82%	30%	37	moderate
Allianz	-1.03%	+1.50%	53%	30	no clear pattern
Novo Nordisk	-1.88%	-1.22%	38%	26	moderate
Siemens	-2.27%	-0.45%	50%	30	no clear pattern
LVMH	-2.48%	+0.62%	56%	27	no clear pattern
Airbus	-2.60%	-3.36%	36%	25	weak
SAP	-2.63%	-0.97%	45%	29	no clear pattern
ASML	-3.02%	+0.13%	52%	29	no clear pattern

Crypto

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
XRP	+11.54%	+2.53%	67%	9	weak
Solana	+5.11%	+8.41%	86%	7	weak
BNB	+1.26%	+1.77%	56%	9	no clear pattern
Bitcoin	-1.14%	-0.24%	50%	12	no clear pattern
Ether	-5.50%	-5.56%	44%	9	weak

Energy

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Natural gas (Henry Hub)	+8.58%	+2.09%	67%	27	strong
European natural gas (TTF)	+2.54%	0.00%	24%	34	no clear pattern
Heating oil (ULSD)	+0.52%	+0.82%	54%	26	no clear pattern
Brent crude oil	-0.38%	-1.22%	45%	20	no clear pattern
WTI crude oil	-0.97%	-3.92%	41%	27	no clear pattern
Gasoline (RBOB)	-6.90%	-8.43%	23%	26	strong

Metals

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Gold	+0.43%	-0.73%	48%	27	no clear pattern
Copper	+0.24%	+0.32%	56%	27	no clear pattern
Nickel	-0.20%	-1.23%	44%	34	no clear pattern
Aluminium	-0.21%	-0.46%	50%	34	no clear pattern
Palladium	-0.47%	+2.95%	68%	28	no clear pattern
Platinum	-0.58%	-1.52%	35%	26	no clear pattern
Silver	-0.70%	+0.55%	52%	27	no clear pattern

Grains and oilseeds

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Wheat	+2.64%	+3.30%	63%	27	weak
Corn	+1.22%	+1.99%	63%	27	no clear pattern
Soybeans	-2.79%	-2.34%	38%	26	weak

Softs

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Sugar	+2.53%	-0.05%	48%	27	no clear pattern
Coffee (Arabica)	+0.46%	+1.43%	59%	27	no clear pattern
Cocoa	-1.44%	+0.39%	52%	27	no clear pattern
Cotton	-2.18%	-2.90%	41%	27	no clear pattern

Livestock

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Lean hogs	+3.90%	+3.32%	69%	26	strong
Live cattle	+0.72%	+1.93%	65%	26	no clear pattern

Rates

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
US 10-year Treasury yield	-1 bp	+1 bp	51%	65	no clear pattern
German 10-year Bund yield	-1 bp	0 bp	40%	70	weak
US 2-year Treasury yield	-3 bp	-3 bp	43%	51	no clear pattern

Currencies

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
USD/BRL	+2.17%	+0.70%	57%	21	no clear pattern
USD/TRY	+1.08%	+1.36%	73%	22	moderate
USD/JPY	+0.17%	+0.32%	57%	30	no clear pattern
EUR/USD	-0.27%	-0.94%	43%	23	no clear pattern
US dollar index (DXY)	-0.28%	-0.50%	45%	56	no clear pattern
GBP/USD	-0.69%	-1.65%	39%	23	weak

Pattern ratings combine consistency across both halves of the sample, the share of up years and a t-statistic. See the methodology.

August · October

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.