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What usually happens in April

The most consistent April strength has come from Bitcoin (+10.16%, up 67% of years), Lean hogs (+8.68%, up 81% of years), Amazon (+7.93%, up 69% of years), BIST 100 (+7.43%, up 76% of years). The most consistent weakness: USD/BRL (-1.42%, up 36% of years).

For the S&P 500, April has averaged +1.36% with gains in 66% of years, and an average absolute move of 4.13%.

Stronger in April

Weaker in April

Every market in April

US indices

MarketAverageMedianUp yearsYearsPattern
Dow Jones Industrial Average+2.17%+1.79%74%35strong
Nasdaq Composite+1.58%+1.67%66%56moderate
S&P 500+1.36%+0.94%66%99strong
Russell 2000+1.24%+0.81%59%39no clear pattern

European indices

MarketAverageMedianUp yearsYearsPattern
DAX+2.65%+1.50%72%39strong
CAC 40+2.13%+2.83%70%37strong
IBEX 35+1.98%+2.02%73%33strong
Euro Stoxx 50+1.92%+1.55%70%20strong
FTSE 100+1.91%+2.24%74%43strong
FTSE MIB+1.80%+0.42%55%29weak
Swiss Market Index+1.22%+1.42%64%36strong

Asia and emerging markets

MarketAverageMedianUp yearsYearsPattern
BIST 100+7.43%+4.28%76%29strong
KOSPI+3.18%+2.86%63%30moderate
Ibovespa+2.98%+2.40%64%33moderate
Hang Seng+2.22%+2.16%68%40strong
Nikkei 225+1.36%+1.55%63%62moderate

US stocks

MarketAverageMedianUp yearsYearsPattern
Amazon+7.93%+8.19%69%29strong
Tesla+5.94%+4.52%63%16weak
Alphabet+5.29%+3.18%64%22moderate
Meta Platforms+4.54%+6.36%64%14moderate
Apple+3.65%+1.54%59%46moderate
Microsoft+3.54%+4.74%68%41strong
JPMorgan Chase+3.23%+2.10%60%47strong
Exxon Mobil+2.51%+1.75%66%65strong
Eli Lilly+1.67%+0.50%56%54weak
Berkshire Hathaway+1.42%+1.15%57%30weak
Walmart+1.28%+2.23%56%54no clear pattern
Nvidia+0.40%+1.43%57%28no clear pattern

European stocks

MarketAverageMedianUp yearsYearsPattern
LVMH+3.80%+3.52%63%27strong
Allianz+3.38%+2.58%57%30weak
SAP+3.37%+0.64%57%28weak
Airbus+2.60%+2.15%60%25weak
Siemens+2.54%+0.28%53%30weak
Nestlé+2.27%+2.68%78%37strong
ASML+2.00%-0.54%46%28no clear pattern
TotalEnergies+1.77%+2.45%67%27moderate
Novo Nordisk+1.63%+2.29%73%26moderate
Shell+1.27%+1.95%60%30weak

Crypto

MarketAverageMedianUp yearsYearsPattern
XRP+23.22%+2.03%67%9weak
BNB+20.81%+6.50%56%9no clear pattern
Ether+17.54%+7.20%67%9weak
Solana+13.13%+3.87%50%6no clear pattern
Bitcoin+10.16%+9.70%67%12moderate

Energy

MarketAverageMedianUp yearsYearsPattern
Gasoline (RBOB)+4.58%+5.74%65%26strong
Brent crude oil+3.86%+5.55%68%19strong
Natural gas (Henry Hub)+3.76%+5.31%69%26strong
WTI crude oil+2.33%+3.29%65%26weak
Heating oil (ULSD)+1.65%+2.18%62%26weak
European natural gas (TTF)-1.93%+0.37%51%35no clear pattern

Metals

MarketAverageMedianUp yearsYearsPattern
Copper+2.10%+0.65%54%26no clear pattern
Gold+1.28%+1.49%62%26weak
Platinum+1.28%+0.57%52%29no clear pattern
Nickel+0.79%-0.17%46%35no clear pattern
Aluminium+0.63%+1.04%51%35no clear pattern
Silver+0.30%-1.31%46%26no clear pattern
Palladium-0.14%+2.61%58%26no clear pattern

Grains and oilseeds

MarketAverageMedianUp yearsYearsPattern
Soybeans+2.23%+1.46%58%26weak
Corn+1.42%-0.74%46%26no clear pattern
Wheat-0.46%-1.01%46%26no clear pattern

Softs

MarketAverageMedianUp yearsYearsPattern
Cocoa+3.02%+3.76%67%27strong
Coffee (Arabica)+1.48%-0.65%48%27no clear pattern
Cotton+0.36%-1.59%44%27no clear pattern
Sugar-1.31%-4.30%30%27weak

Livestock

MarketAverageMedianUp yearsYearsPattern
Lean hogs+8.68%+8.97%81%26strong
Live cattle+1.01%-0.01%46%26no clear pattern

Rates

MarketAverageMedianUp yearsYearsPattern
US 10-year Treasury yield+7 bp+2 bp57%65weak
US 2-year Treasury yield0 bp+1 bp50%50no clear pattern
German 10-year Bund yield-1 bp0 bp40%70no clear pattern

Currencies

MarketAverageMedianUp yearsYearsPattern
GBP/USD+1.20%+1.50%78%23strong
EUR/USD+0.62%+0.19%52%23no clear pattern
USD/JPY+0.34%+0.01%50%30no clear pattern
USD/TRY-0.05%-0.80%41%22no clear pattern
US dollar index (DXY)-0.38%-0.31%43%56no clear pattern
USD/BRL-1.42%-1.80%36%22moderate

Pattern ratings combine consistency across both halves of the sample, the share of up years and a t-statistic. See the methodology.

March · May

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.