What usually happens in July

The most consistent July strength has come from Bitcoin (+8.88%, up 75% of years), Alphabet (+5.12%, up 68% of years), BIST 100 (+4.70%, up 66% of years), Airbus (+4.69%, up 80% of years). The most consistent weakness: Corn (-3.80%, up 38% of years), Soybeans (-3.30%, up 38% of years), Natural gas (Henry Hub) (-1.13%, up 31% of years).

For the S&P 500, July has averaged +1.67% with gains in 61% of years, and an average absolute move of 4.13%.

Stronger in July

Bitcoin+8.88% 75% up
Alphabet+5.12% 68% up
BIST 100+4.70% 66% up
Airbus+4.69% 80% up
Amazon+4.57% 67% up
Meta Platforms+4.46% 67% up
Silver+3.37% 62% up
Palladium+3.16% 73% up
LVMH+2.84% 67% up
Ibovespa+2.78% 71% up

Weaker in July

Corn-3.80% 38% up
Soybeans-3.30% 38% up
Natural gas (Henry Hub)-1.13% 31% up

Every market in July

US indices

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
S&P 500	+1.67%	+1.62%	61%	99	strong
Dow Jones Industrial Average	+1.61%	+1.00%	77%	35	strong
Nasdaq Composite	+0.85%	+1.12%	57%	56	no clear pattern
Russell 2000	+0.45%	+1.33%	56%	39	no clear pattern

European indices

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Euro Stoxx 50	+1.69%	+0.54%	70%	20	strong
DAX	+1.60%	+1.85%	67%	39	strong
FTSE 100	+1.21%	+1.47%	63%	43	moderate
FTSE MIB	+1.02%	+1.04%	62%	29	no clear pattern
Swiss Market Index	+1.02%	+1.26%	67%	36	moderate
CAC 40	+0.88%	+1.26%	59%	37	no clear pattern
IBEX 35	+0.49%	+0.55%	55%	33	no clear pattern

Asia and emerging markets

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
BIST 100	+4.70%	+4.67%	66%	29	strong
Ibovespa	+2.78%	+3.24%	71%	34	strong
Hang Seng	+2.29%	+2.88%	65%	40	strong
KOSPI	+0.88%	+1.53%	60%	30	no clear pattern
Nikkei 225	-0.07%	-0.06%	48%	62	no clear pattern

US stocks

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Alphabet	+5.12%	+5.92%	68%	22	strong
Amazon	+4.57%	+4.34%	67%	30	moderate
Meta Platforms	+4.46%	+4.79%	67%	15	moderate
Apple	+3.19%	+3.07%	63%	46	weak
Walmart	+2.68%	+1.59%	65%	54	moderate
Tesla	+2.17%	-0.79%	47%	17	no clear pattern
JPMorgan Chase	+2.10%	+1.80%	66%	47	weak
Exxon Mobil	+1.13%	+1.55%	60%	65	moderate
Berkshire Hathaway	+0.99%	+0.06%	52%	31	no clear pattern
Microsoft	+0.31%	+0.74%	54%	41	no clear pattern
Eli Lilly	-0.24%	+0.44%	53%	55	no clear pattern
Nvidia	-1.43%	+0.80%	54%	28	no clear pattern

European stocks

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Airbus	+4.69%	+3.94%	80%	25	strong
ASML	+2.86%	+2.07%	54%	28	no clear pattern
LVMH	+2.84%	+2.25%	67%	27	strong
SAP	+2.78%	+2.53%	62%	29	moderate
Siemens	+2.61%	+2.47%	63%	30	moderate
Allianz	+1.84%	+1.44%	60%	30	weak
Nestlé	+0.25%	-0.36%	41%	37	no clear pattern
TotalEnergies	+0.06%	-0.15%	48%	27	no clear pattern
Novo Nordisk	-0.94%	-1.02%	38%	26	weak
Shell	-2.31%	+0.79%	57%	30	no clear pattern

Crypto

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Solana	+23.13%	+17.29%	86%	7	weak
XRP	+17.56%	+14.79%	78%	9	weak
Ether	+16.62%	+11.50%	56%	9	weak
Bitcoin	+8.88%	+8.13%	75%	12	strong
BNB	+8.74%	+7.47%	67%	9	weak

Energy

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
European natural gas (TTF)	+2.79%	+1.55%	54%	35	no clear pattern
Heating oil (ULSD)	+1.97%	+1.95%	65%	26	weak
WTI crude oil	+1.55%	+0.62%	69%	26	weak
Gasoline (RBOB)	+1.54%	+2.46%	58%	26	no clear pattern
Brent crude oil	+0.90%	+3.46%	58%	19	no clear pattern
Natural gas (Henry Hub)	-1.13%	-4.42%	31%	26	moderate

Metals

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Silver	+3.37%	+1.52%	62%	26	moderate
Palladium	+3.16%	+4.43%	73%	26	strong
Copper	+1.57%	+3.08%	62%	26	no clear pattern
Gold	+0.93%	+1.43%	58%	26	no clear pattern
Aluminium	+0.88%	+2.08%	66%	35	no clear pattern
Platinum	+0.20%	+0.57%	50%	28	no clear pattern
Nickel	-0.26%	-0.67%	43%	35	no clear pattern

Grains and oilseeds

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Wheat	+3.99%	+3.98%	62%	26	weak
Soybeans	-3.30%	-2.50%	38%	26	moderate
Corn	-3.80%	-4.20%	38%	26	moderate

Softs

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Sugar	+3.03%	+3.81%	63%	27	weak
Coffee (Arabica)	+1.43%	+0.65%	56%	27	no clear pattern
Cocoa	+0.92%	+1.40%	59%	27	no clear pattern
Cotton	+0.19%	+0.32%	56%	27	no clear pattern

Livestock

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Live cattle	+0.31%	-0.23%	46%	26	no clear pattern
Lean hogs	-0.17%	+2.71%	54%	26	no clear pattern

Rates

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
US 10-year Treasury yield	+1 bp	0 bp	48%	65	no clear pattern
German 10-year Bund yield	0 bp	0 bp	42%	71	no clear pattern
US 2-year Treasury yield	-2 bp	-2 bp	45%	51	no clear pattern

Currencies

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
GBP/USD	+0.53%	+0.88%	65%	23	weak
EUR/USD	+0.32%	-0.07%	48%	23	no clear pattern
USD/TRY	+0.17%	+0.31%	59%	22	no clear pattern
US dollar index (DXY)	-0.19%	-0.04%	48%	56	no clear pattern
USD/JPY	-0.25%	+0.12%	53%	30	no clear pattern
USD/BRL	-0.47%	-1.14%	41%	22	no clear pattern

Pattern ratings combine consistency across both halves of the sample, the share of up years and a t-statistic. See the methodology.

June · August

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.