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What usually happens in March

The most consistent March strength has come from Gasoline (RBOB) (+13.12%, up 92% of years), Amazon (+4.61%, up 72% of years), Walmart (+3.60%, up 69% of years), Microsoft (+2.88%, up 65% of years). The most consistent weakness: Sugar (-6.19%, up 31% of years).

For the S&P 500, March has averaged +0.42% with gains in 61% of years, and an average absolute move of 3.55%.

Stronger in March

Weaker in March

Every market in March

US indices

MarketAverageMedianUp yearsYearsPattern
Nasdaq Composite+0.56%+1.34%63%56weak
Dow Jones Industrial Average+0.54%+1.05%63%35weak
S&P 500+0.42%+1.00%61%99weak
Russell 2000+0.41%+1.12%67%39moderate

European indices

MarketAverageMedianUp yearsYearsPattern
FTSE MIB+0.67%+0.74%52%29no clear pattern
Swiss Market Index+0.64%+1.11%58%36no clear pattern
CAC 40+0.49%+1.27%64%36no clear pattern
DAX+0.40%+0.09%51%39no clear pattern
FTSE 100+0.12%+0.77%56%43no clear pattern
Euro Stoxx 50-0.09%+0.39%53%19no clear pattern
IBEX 35-0.36%-1.41%42%33no clear pattern

Asia and emerging markets

MarketAverageMedianUp yearsYearsPattern
Ibovespa+2.32%-0.06%48%33no clear pattern
Nikkei 225+1.08%+2.00%58%62no clear pattern
KOSPI+0.42%+0.52%57%30no clear pattern
BIST 100-0.10%-0.16%48%29no clear pattern
Hang Seng-1.04%+0.18%53%40no clear pattern

US stocks

MarketAverageMedianUp yearsYearsPattern
Nvidia+4.73%+1.50%54%28weak
Amazon+4.61%+2.05%72%29strong
Walmart+3.60%+3.83%69%54strong
Microsoft+2.88%+2.23%65%40moderate
Apple+2.20%-0.52%50%46no clear pattern
Berkshire Hathaway+2.13%+1.64%57%30weak
Exxon Mobil+1.50%+2.28%63%65moderate
Eli Lilly+1.05%+1.31%61%54weak
JPMorgan Chase+1.00%-1.29%46%46no clear pattern
Alphabet+0.12%+1.14%55%22no clear pattern
Meta Platforms-0.60%+1.16%50%14no clear pattern
Tesla-1.23%-4.14%44%16no clear pattern

European stocks

MarketAverageMedianUp yearsYearsPattern
Novo Nordisk+2.39%+1.28%62%26weak
Shell+1.90%+2.29%63%30moderate
ASML+1.88%+1.13%54%28no clear pattern
Nestlé+1.64%+0.85%68%37strong
TotalEnergies+1.42%+0.67%56%27no clear pattern
Allianz+0.50%+1.97%60%30weak
LVMH+0.35%+1.50%56%27no clear pattern
Siemens+0.06%+0.93%60%30no clear pattern
SAP-0.62%+1.31%57%28no clear pattern
Airbus-3.38%-2.00%36%25weak

Crypto

MarketAverageMedianUp yearsYearsPattern
Solana+18.78%+10.88%50%6no clear pattern
BNB+16.73%+5.92%78%9weak
XRP+1.95%-1.86%44%9no clear pattern
Bitcoin+0.48%-0.16%50%12no clear pattern
Ether-3.37%+7.11%67%9no clear pattern

Energy

MarketAverageMedianUp yearsYearsPattern
Gasoline (RBOB)+13.12%+13.14%92%26strong
WTI crude oil+2.59%+4.93%58%26no clear pattern
Brent crude oil+1.60%+2.13%63%19weak
Natural gas (Henry Hub)+1.45%+1.67%54%26no clear pattern
Heating oil (ULSD)+1.22%-1.18%46%26no clear pattern
European natural gas (TTF)+0.47%0.00%20%35no clear pattern

Metals

MarketAverageMedianUp yearsYearsPattern
Copper+1.41%+0.23%54%26no clear pattern
Nickel+0.90%-1.25%43%35no clear pattern
Silver+0.51%-0.73%42%26no clear pattern
Gold+0.21%-0.44%46%26no clear pattern
Aluminium+0.10%-0.02%49%35no clear pattern
Palladium-0.17%+2.86%57%28no clear pattern
Platinum-1.69%-1.78%42%26no clear pattern

Grains and oilseeds

MarketAverageMedianUp yearsYearsPattern
Corn+1.16%+1.20%54%26no clear pattern
Soybeans+0.15%+0.30%54%26no clear pattern
Wheat-0.13%-0.26%46%26no clear pattern

Softs

MarketAverageMedianUp yearsYearsPattern
Cocoa+0.65%+1.12%59%27no clear pattern
Cotton+0.36%+0.74%52%27no clear pattern
Coffee (Arabica)-0.54%-1.73%37%27weak
Sugar-6.19%-3.81%31%26strong

Livestock

MarketAverageMedianUp yearsYearsPattern
Live cattle-0.72%+0.08%52%25no clear pattern
Lean hogs-0.83%-2.58%31%26weak

Rates

MarketAverageMedianUp yearsYearsPattern
US 10-year Treasury yield+4 bp+4 bp57%65no clear pattern
US 2-year Treasury yield+4 bp+2 bp54%50no clear pattern
German 10-year Bund yield+2 bp0 bp46%70no clear pattern

Currencies

MarketAverageMedianUp yearsYearsPattern
USD/TRY+2.40%+1.85%73%22strong
USD/BRL+1.11%+0.94%52%21no clear pattern
USD/JPY+0.76%+0.53%53%30no clear pattern
EUR/USD+0.29%+0.30%52%23no clear pattern
US dollar index (DXY)+0.22%+0.26%52%56no clear pattern
GBP/USD-0.45%-0.29%35%23weak

Pattern ratings combine consistency across both halves of the sample, the share of up years and a t-statistic. See the methodology.

February · April

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.