Sell in May, tested on every market
For the S&P 500, the November to April half averaged +5.20% and the May to October half +2.39% since 1929; winter did better in 66% of years.
| Market | Nov to Apr | May to Oct | Winter better | Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lean hogs | +21.56% | -13.91% | 92% | 24 |
| Gasoline (RBOB) | +21.77% | -7.55% | 83% | 24 |
| Allianz | +10.40% | +0.16% | 79% | 28 |
| CAC 40 | +8.23% | -1.78% | 74% | 35 |
| DAX | +10.26% | -0.13% | 73% | 37 |
| FTSE 100 | +6.34% | -0.10% | 73% | 41 |
| Cocoa | +17.60% | -2.63% | 72% | 25 |
| Novo Nordisk | +15.17% | +3.67% | 71% | 24 |
| JPMorgan Chase | +14.74% | +2.75% | 69% | 45 |
| Berkshire Hathaway | +9.32% | +3.05% | 69% | 29 |
| Swiss Market Index | +5.95% | +1.27% | 68% | 34 |
| Copper | +10.79% | +0.31% | 68% | 25 |
| Platinum | +9.72% | -1.17% | 68% | 28 |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | +6.71% | +2.54% | 67% | 33 |
| FTSE MIB | +6.58% | -2.75% | 67% | 27 |
| Nikkei 225 | +7.73% | +0.75% | 67% | 60 |
| GBP/USD | +0.63% | -1.80% | 67% | 21 |
| S&P 500 | +5.20% | +2.39% | 66% | 97 |
| Russell 2000 | +8.07% | +2.01% | 66% | 38 |
| USD/JPY | +2.63% | -1.06% | 66% | 29 |
| KOSPI | +10.83% | +1.02% | 64% | 28 |
| LVMH | +10.54% | +3.60% | 64% | 25 |
| Siemens | +14.76% | +0.16% | 64% | 28 |
| Palladium | +12.14% | +3.50% | 64% | 25 |
| Nickel | +9.89% | -0.37% | 64% | 33 |
| Nasdaq Composite | +8.81% | +3.77% | 63% | 54 |
| IBEX 35 | +7.31% | -0.14% | 63% | 32 |
| SAP | +7.96% | +3.18% | 63% | 27 |
| Nestlé | +7.48% | +2.51% | 63% | 35 |
| Airbus | +10.28% | +10.06% | 63% | 24 |
| Shell | +3.47% | -1.80% | 62% | 29 |
| US 10-year Treasury yield | +10 bp | -9 bp | 62% | 63 |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | +4.20% | -1.21% | 61% | 18 |
| BIST 100 | +24.21% | +7.59% | 61% | 28 |
| Brent crude oil | +5.29% | -0.26% | 61% | 18 |
| US 2-year Treasury yield | +9 bp | -14 bp | 61% | 49 |
| TotalEnergies | +4.95% | +3.01% | 60% | 25 |
| Solana | +563.48% | +87.54% | 60% | 5 |
| Corn | +10.79% | -2.51% | 60% | 25 |
| Soybeans | +10.50% | -3.23% | 60% | 25 |
| Coffee (Arabica) | +11.68% | +0.93% | 60% | 25 |
| Cotton | +8.59% | -2.51% | 60% | 25 |
| Exxon Mobil | +9.06% | +4.37% | 59% | 63 |
| ASML | +33.11% | +8.92% | 59% | 27 |
| Hang Seng | +7.04% | +2.42% | 58% | 38 |
| Eli Lilly | +9.90% | +5.61% | 58% | 53 |
| Aluminium | +4.36% | +0.38% | 58% | 33 |
| Ether | +90.36% | +29.52% | 57% | 7 |
| BNB | +335.94% | +10.85% | 57% | 7 |
| US dollar index (DXY) | +0.02% | +0.09% | 57% | 54 |
| WTI crude oil | +6.09% | +3.74% | 56% | 25 |
| Bitcoin | +50.81% | +52.71% | 55% | 11 |
| USD/TRY | +8.62% | +10.87% | 55% | 20 |
| Nvidia | +34.95% | +21.05% | 54% | 26 |
| Meta Platforms | +22.98% | +15.74% | 54% | 13 |
| Live cattle | +4.01% | +2.22% | 54% | 24 |
| Ibovespa | +37.93% | +8.33% | 53% | 32 |
| Tesla | +24.99% | +35.58% | 53% | 15 |
| Apple | +17.26% | +13.27% | 52% | 44 |
| Silver | +10.39% | +4.13% | 52% | 25 |
| EUR/USD | +0.92% | -0.97% | 52% | 21 |
| Walmart | +10.68% | +10.27% | 49% | 53 |
| European natural gas (TTF) | +0.48% | +15.96% | 48% | 33 |
| Heating oil (ULSD) | +4.88% | +6.77% | 48% | 25 |
| Gold | +8.28% | +4.05% | 48% | 25 |
| Wheat | -0.55% | +7.49% | 48% | 25 |
| Amazon | +26.38% | +16.88% | 46% | 28 |
| German 10-year Bund yield | -10 bp | +3 bp | 45% | 69 |
| Microsoft | +16.95% | +11.33% | 44% | 39 |
| USD/BRL | +1.71% | +4.44% | 37% | 19 |
| Natural gas (Henry Hub) | -6.21% | +17.40% | 36% | 25 |
| XRP | +110.36% | +0.16% | 29% | 7 |
| Sugar | -4.04% | +11.31% | 28% | 25 |
| Alphabet | +5.46% | +19.05% | 24% | 21 |
Halves run from the last close of October to the last close of April, and from April to October. Sorted by how often the winter half did better.
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