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What usually happens in January

The most consistent January strength has come from ASML (+15.04%, up 75% of years), Meta Platforms (+9.15%, up 71% of years), Microsoft (+5.07%, up 65% of years), Nickel (+4.76%, up 71% of years). The most consistent weakness: Natural gas (Henry Hub) (-5.16%, up 38% of years), USD/BRL (-0.99%, up 33% of years).

For the S&P 500, January has averaged +1.21% with gains in 63% of years, and an average absolute move of 3.97%.

Stronger in January

Weaker in January

Every market in January

US indices

MarketAverageMedianUp yearsYearsPattern
Nasdaq Composite+2.47%+2.86%67%55strong
S&P 500+1.21%+1.55%63%99strong
Russell 2000+0.74%+1.25%54%39no clear pattern
Dow Jones Industrial Average+0.28%+0.42%59%34no clear pattern

European indices

MarketAverageMedianUp yearsYearsPattern
FTSE MIB+1.38%+1.39%62%29weak
CAC 40+1.01%+1.88%58%36no clear pattern
IBEX 35+0.96%+1.20%58%33no clear pattern
DAX+0.85%+2.10%59%39no clear pattern
FTSE 100+0.49%+0.94%55%42no clear pattern
Swiss Market Index+0.48%+0.33%53%36no clear pattern
Euro Stoxx 50+0.13%+2.62%53%19no clear pattern

Asia and emerging markets

MarketAverageMedianUp yearsYearsPattern
Ibovespa+5.14%-1.73%48%33weak
BIST 100+3.37%+3.64%69%29strong
KOSPI+3.28%+1.89%63%30moderate
Nikkei 225+1.35%+1.46%66%61moderate
Hang Seng+0.49%+1.28%55%40no clear pattern

US stocks

MarketAverageMedianUp yearsYearsPattern
Meta Platforms+9.15%+9.38%71%14strong
Tesla+5.45%+0.99%56%16no clear pattern
Microsoft+5.07%+3.07%65%40moderate
Amazon+3.84%+3.67%55%29weak
Apple+3.59%+0.98%57%46no clear pattern
JPMorgan Chase+3.49%+4.64%63%46strong
Nvidia+3.38%-1.49%41%27no clear pattern
Walmart+2.31%+1.63%57%54no clear pattern
Alphabet+2.28%+4.28%77%22weak
Exxon Mobil+1.45%+0.16%50%64weak
Eli Lilly+0.77%-0.36%50%54no clear pattern
Berkshire Hathaway+0.40%+0.35%53%30no clear pattern

European stocks

MarketAverageMedianUp yearsYearsPattern
ASML+15.04%+5.74%75%28strong
Airbus+2.83%+1.10%56%25no clear pattern
Siemens+2.82%+3.53%67%30strong
SAP+1.66%-0.41%46%28no clear pattern
LVMH+0.43%+0.65%58%26no clear pattern
Allianz+0.31%+0.38%53%30no clear pattern
TotalEnergies+0.27%+0.71%58%26no clear pattern
Nestlé-0.32%+0.46%53%36no clear pattern
Shell-1.27%-1.69%40%30no clear pattern
Novo Nordisk-5.67%-0.29%48%25no clear pattern

Crypto

MarketAverageMedianUp yearsYearsPattern
Solana+47.32%+8.99%50%6no clear pattern
Ether+14.70%+0.05%56%9no clear pattern
XRP+10.85%-10.57%44%9no clear pattern
BNB+7.24%+1.68%56%9no clear pattern
Bitcoin-1.15%-3.46%50%12no clear pattern

Energy

MarketAverageMedianUp yearsYearsPattern
Gasoline (RBOB)+3.30%+3.18%65%26moderate
Heating oil (ULSD)+2.49%+3.49%62%26weak
Brent crude oil+2.15%+2.84%58%19no clear pattern
WTI crude oil+1.99%+1.01%54%26no clear pattern
European natural gas (TTF)+1.88%+0.82%50%34no clear pattern
Natural gas (Henry Hub)-5.16%-5.57%38%26moderate

Metals

MarketAverageMedianUp yearsYearsPattern
Nickel+4.76%+6.33%71%34strong
Silver+3.84%+3.56%69%26strong
Palladium+3.44%+3.63%67%27strong
Platinum+3.39%+2.83%76%29strong
Gold+2.95%+3.21%65%26strong
Aluminium+1.91%+1.44%62%34strong
Copper+1.90%+1.98%65%26weak

Grains and oilseeds

MarketAverageMedianUp yearsYearsPattern
Corn+1.17%+1.80%65%26weak
Soybeans+0.42%+1.31%65%26no clear pattern
Wheat-1.05%-0.22%50%26no clear pattern

Softs

MarketAverageMedianUp yearsYearsPattern
Sugar+2.36%+2.09%65%26weak
Cocoa+1.91%-0.21%50%26no clear pattern
Coffee (Arabica)+1.68%+1.67%58%26no clear pattern
Cotton+1.26%+0.24%50%26no clear pattern

Livestock

MarketAverageMedianUp yearsYearsPattern
Live cattle+0.65%+0.83%58%24no clear pattern
Lean hogs-0.20%+1.70%62%26no clear pattern

Rates

MarketAverageMedianUp yearsYearsPattern
US 10-year Treasury yield+1 bp+2 bp53%64no clear pattern
US 2-year Treasury yield-1 bp-1 bp46%50no clear pattern
German 10-year Bund yield-2 bp-1 bp34%70no clear pattern

Currencies

MarketAverageMedianUp yearsYearsPattern
USD/TRY+1.40%+0.56%62%21moderate
US dollar index (DXY)+0.90%+0.83%62%55strong
GBP/USD+0.52%+0.20%57%23no clear pattern
USD/JPY0.00%-0.70%47%30no clear pattern
EUR/USD-0.57%-0.09%48%23no clear pattern
USD/BRL-0.99%-2.03%33%21moderate

Pattern ratings combine consistency across both halves of the sample, the share of up years and a t-statistic. See the methodology.

December · February

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.