What usually happens in June

The most consistent June strength has come from Tesla (+8.24%, up 69% of years), Sugar (+4.21%, up 67% of years), Heating oil (ULSD) (+3.14%, up 69% of years), Soybeans (+2.67%, up 62% of years). The most consistent weakness: Silver (-2.96%, up 31% of years), Corn (-2.52%, up 31% of years), Nickel (-2.44%, up 29% of years), Platinum (-1.65%, up 32% of years).

For the S&P 500, June has averaged +0.79% with gains in 57% of years, and an average absolute move of 3.62%.

Stronger in June

Tesla+8.24% 69% up
Sugar+4.21% 67% up
Heating oil (ULSD)+3.14% 69% up
Soybeans+2.67% 62% up
Meta Platforms+2.50% 73% up
Eli Lilly+2.45% 65% up
USD/TRY+1.74% 73% up
German 10-year Bund yield+6 bp 46% up

Weaker in June

Silver-2.96% 31% up
Corn-2.52% 31% up
Nickel-2.44% 29% up
Platinum-1.65% 32% up
FTSE MIB-1.51% 28% up

Every market in June

US indices

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Nasdaq Composite	+1.02%	+1.12%	57%	56	weak
Russell 2000	+0.80%	+0.60%	64%	39	weak
S&P 500	+0.79%	+0.30%	57%	99	weak
Dow Jones Industrial Average	-0.11%	-0.08%	49%	35	no clear pattern

European indices

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
DAX	-0.04%	-0.17%	49%	39	no clear pattern
Swiss Market Index	-0.32%	-0.05%	47%	36	no clear pattern
IBEX 35	-0.58%	-0.23%	48%	33	no clear pattern
FTSE 100	-0.75%	-0.36%	42%	43	no clear pattern
Euro Stoxx 50	-0.91%	-0.84%	35%	20	no clear pattern
CAC 40	-1.08%	-1.11%	43%	37	no clear pattern
FTSE MIB	-1.51%	-1.08%	28%	29	moderate

Asia and emerging markets

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Ibovespa	+3.23%	+0.38%	56%	34	no clear pattern
BIST 100	+0.82%	+0.35%	55%	29	no clear pattern
Nikkei 225	+0.66%	+1.27%	61%	62	no clear pattern
KOSPI	+0.59%	-0.06%	50%	30	no clear pattern
Hang Seng	-0.10%	+0.44%	55%	40	no clear pattern

US stocks

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Tesla	+8.24%	+7.84%	69%	16	strong
Amazon	+4.42%	+3.53%	63%	30	weak
Meta Platforms	+2.50%	+5.07%	73%	15	moderate
Eli Lilly	+2.45%	+3.11%	65%	54	strong
Walmart	+2.33%	+1.29%	57%	54	weak
Microsoft	+1.87%	+1.92%	56%	41	no clear pattern
Exxon Mobil	+0.49%	+0.48%	54%	65	no clear pattern
JPMorgan Chase	+0.15%	+1.04%	55%	47	no clear pattern
Berkshire Hathaway	-0.22%	-0.94%	39%	31	no clear pattern
Alphabet	-0.40%	-0.55%	45%	22	no clear pattern
Nvidia	-1.07%	-0.63%	50%	28	no clear pattern
Apple	-1.94%	-2.56%	46%	46	no clear pattern

European stocks

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
ASML	+1.71%	+0.01%	50%	28	no clear pattern
SAP	+1.17%	+0.69%	59%	29	no clear pattern
Shell	+0.78%	+1.02%	57%	30	no clear pattern
Novo Nordisk	+0.40%	+1.67%	54%	26	no clear pattern
Allianz	+0.40%	+0.33%	57%	30	no clear pattern
TotalEnergies	-0.20%	+0.40%	52%	27	no clear pattern
Nestlé	-0.32%	+0.85%	54%	37	no clear pattern
Airbus	-0.35%	+2.18%	60%	25	no clear pattern
Siemens	-0.55%	+0.25%	50%	30	no clear pattern
LVMH	-1.47%	-2.49%	41%	27	no clear pattern

Crypto

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Bitcoin	+0.05%	-0.51%	50%	12	no clear pattern
Solana	-0.01%	-9.25%	29%	7	weak
BNB	-11.11%	-9.55%	11%	9	weak
Ether	-11.67%	-8.70%	22%	9	weak
XRP	-15.15%	-13.32%	11%	9	weak

Energy

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Heating oil (ULSD)	+3.14%	+3.06%	69%	26	strong
WTI crude oil	+2.11%	+3.76%	65%	26	weak
Brent crude oil	+1.21%	+2.38%	63%	19	weak
European natural gas (TTF)	+1.02%	0.00%	29%	35	no clear pattern
Natural gas (Henry Hub)	+0.19%	-0.70%	42%	26	no clear pattern
Gasoline (RBOB)	-0.83%	+1.39%	62%	26	no clear pattern

Metals

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Copper	-0.57%	+1.22%	54%	26	no clear pattern
Gold	-0.87%	-1.63%	42%	26	no clear pattern
Aluminium	-1.16%	-1.14%	40%	35	weak
Palladium	-1.54%	-2.24%	36%	28	weak
Platinum	-1.65%	-2.61%	32%	25	moderate
Nickel	-2.44%	-3.98%	29%	35	strong
Silver	-2.96%	-3.67%	31%	26	strong

Grains and oilseeds

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Soybeans	+2.67%	+2.75%	62%	26	moderate
Wheat	-1.78%	-5.17%	38%	26	weak
Corn	-2.52%	-4.84%	31%	26	moderate

Softs

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Sugar	+4.21%	+2.13%	67%	27	strong
Cocoa	+2.15%	+1.27%	59%	27	no clear pattern
Coffee (Arabica)	-0.50%	-0.80%	48%	27	no clear pattern
Cotton	-1.02%	+0.71%	52%	27	no clear pattern

Livestock

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Live cattle	+1.07%	+1.67%	58%	26	no clear pattern
Lean hogs	+0.68%	+1.94%	54%	26	no clear pattern

Rates

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
German 10-year Bund yield	+6 bp	0 bp	46%	71	moderate
US 10-year Treasury yield	-2 bp	-3 bp	46%	65	no clear pattern
US 2-year Treasury yield	-2 bp	-1 bp	46%	50	no clear pattern

Currencies

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
USD/TRY	+1.74%	+1.10%	73%	22	moderate
USD/JPY	+0.21%	+0.36%	53%	30	no clear pattern
EUR/USD	+0.15%	-0.06%	48%	23	no clear pattern
US dollar index (DXY)	-0.14%	-0.31%	45%	56	no clear pattern
GBP/USD	-0.31%	+0.19%	52%	23	no clear pattern
USD/BRL	-0.56%	-1.33%	36%	22	weak

Pattern ratings combine consistency across both halves of the sample, the share of up years and a t-statistic. See the methodology.

May · July

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.