USD/BRL: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, USD/BRL has averaged -0.77% and risen in 45% of 20 years (2006 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as no clear pattern.
Last close 4.9967 on October 6, 2026: -4.33% on the day, -8.76% this year, -3.96% so far in October.
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | -0.99% | -2.03% | 33% | -1.75% | +7.45% | -6.37% | 21 | moderate |
| February | +0.29% | -0.60% | 43% | +0.67% | +11.72% | -4.22% | 21 | no clear pattern |
| March | +1.11% | +0.94% | 52% | +2.02% | +15.78% | -9.30% | 21 | no clear pattern |
| April | -1.42% | -1.80% | 36% | -0.17% | +4.68% | -8.47% | 22 | moderate |
| May | +1.77% | +1.23% | 73% | +1.09% | +9.72% | -9.39% | 22 | strong |
| June | -0.56% | -1.33% | 36% | +0.60% | +9.02% | -9.24% | 22 | weak |
| July | -0.47% | -1.14% | 41% | -1.09% | +8.21% | -5.06% | 22 | no clear pattern |
| August | +2.02% | +1.04% | 64% | +2.92% | +11.28% | -2.91% | 22 | strong |
| September | +2.17% | +0.70% | 57% | +0.95% | +17.86% | -6.58% | 21 | no clear pattern |
| October | -0.77% | -1.55% | 45% | +0.19% | +9.11% | -7.91% | 20 | no clear pattern |
| November | +2.31% | +2.47% | 65% | +0.82% | +9.15% | -7.53% | 20 | strong |
| December | -0.01% | +0.02% | 50% | -0.65% | +5.02% | -5.83% | 20 | no clear pattern |
What drives USD/BRL
- The Brazilian real is a high-carry currency that reacts to fiscal news, commodity prices and elections.
- A higher number means a weaker real.
Sell in May for USD/BRL
From 2007 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +1.71% and the May to October half +4.44%. The winter half did better in 37% of 19 years. Compare all markets.
Year by year
Latest insights on USD/BRL
Brazil's first-round surprise sends the Ibovespa to a record
Flavio Bolsonaro edged Lula in the first round. The runoff is on October 25, and the Ibovespa closed at a record.
Questions
What is the best month for USD/BRL?
Since 2004, November has had the highest average move for USD/BRL at +2.31%, rising in 65% of 20 years. May has the highest share of positive years (73%).
What is the worst month for USD/BRL?
April has had the weakest average move at -1.42%, rising in 36% of 22 years.
How does USD/BRL usually do in October?
USD/BRL has averaged -0.77% in October (median -1.55%), rising in 45% of 20 years. We rate the pattern as no clear pattern.
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