Ibovespa: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, Ibovespa has averaged +1.31% and risen in 64% of 33 years (1993 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as weak.
Last close 205,835.00 on October 6, 2026: -0.52% on the day, +27.75% this year, +10.46% so far in October.
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +5.14% | -1.73% | 48% | +4.77% | +97.23% | -10.77% | 33 | weak |
| February | +2.22% | +0.67% | 58% | -1.62% | +42.30% | -15.81% | 33 | no clear pattern |
| March | +2.32% | -0.06% | 48% | -1.89% | +43.81% | -29.90% | 33 | no clear pattern |
| April | +2.98% | +2.40% | 64% | +0.90% | +28.02% | -12.81% | 33 | moderate |
| May | +1.98% | -1.23% | 44% | -0.14% | +44.81% | -15.67% | 34 | no clear pattern |
| June | +3.23% | +0.38% | 56% | +0.77% | +53.87% | -13.39% | 34 | no clear pattern |
| July | +2.78% | +3.24% | 71% | +2.91% | +22.16% | -12.35% | 34 | strong |
| August | +1.91% | +1.45% | 59% | +1.12% | +46.95% | -39.55% | 34 | no clear pattern |
| September | +2.11% | +2.95% | 71% | +0.71% | +52.07% | -17.17% | 34 | moderate |
| October | +1.31% | +1.79% | 64% | +1.96% | +25.78% | -24.80% | 33 | weak |
| November | +4.67% | +2.03% | 61% | +2.26% | +48.59% | -10.63% | 33 | strong |
| December | +3.62% | +2.85% | 67% | +2.14% | +37.04% | -21.40% | 33 | strong |
What drives Ibovespa
- Brazil's benchmark, heavy in commodities (Vale, Petrobras) and banks.
- The Selic policy rate, fiscal credibility and election outcomes drive foreign flows and the real.
Sell in May for Ibovespa
From 1994 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +37.93% and the May to October half +8.33%. The winter half did better in 53% of 32 years. Compare all markets.
Year by year
Latest insights on Ibovespa
Brazil's first-round surprise sends the Ibovespa to a record
Flavio Bolsonaro edged Lula in the first round. The runoff is on October 25, and the Ibovespa closed at a record.
Questions
What is the best month for Ibovespa?
Since 1993, January has had the highest average move for Ibovespa at +5.14%, rising in 48% of 33 years. July has the highest share of positive years (71%).
What is the worst month for Ibovespa?
October has had the weakest average move at +1.31%, rising in 64% of 33 years.
How does Ibovespa usually do in October?
Ibovespa has averaged +1.31% in October (median +1.79%), rising in 64% of 33 years. We rate the pattern as weak.
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