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Live cattle: seasonality, event history and insights

In October, Live cattle has averaged +2.80% and risen in 68% of 25 years (2001 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as strong.

Last close 221.23 on October 6, 2026: +1.83% on the day, -4.64% this year, +1.17% so far in October.

Last close
221.23
Day
+1.83%
1 month
+3.89%
Year to date
-4.64%
1 year
-4.59%
From 52-week high
-14.41%
+3.8%+1.9%-1.9%-3.8%Jan: average +0.65%, up in 58% of 24 yearsJanFeb: average +1.48%, up in 75% of 24 yearsFebMar: average -0.72%, up in 52% of 25 yearsMarApr: average +1.01%, up in 46% of 26 yearsAprMay: average -3.75%, up in 23% of 26 yearsMayJun: average +1.07%, up in 58% of 26 yearsJunJul: average +0.31%, up in 46% of 26 yearsJulAug: average +0.56%, up in 42% of 26 yearsAugSep: average +0.72%, up in 65% of 26 yearsSepOct: average +2.80%, up in 68% of 25 yearsOctNov: average +0.32%, up in 48% of 25 yearsNovDec: average +1.62%, up in 84% of 25 yearsDec
Live cattle: average return by calendar month, 2001 to 2026. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.

Month by month

MonthAverageMedianUp yearsLast 10 yearsBestWorstYearsPattern
January+0.65%+0.83%58%+0.94%+8.19% 2002-6.55% 201524no clear pattern
February+1.48%+2.53%75%+1.77%+9.52% 2017-7.15% 202024strong
March-0.72%+0.08%52%-1.70%+8.50% 2011-11.81% 200625no clear pattern
April+1.01%-0.01%46%+2.26%+15.05% 2017-11.61% 202026no clear pattern
May-3.75%-4.07%23%-4.40%+10.81% 2020-15.11% 201826strong
June+1.07%+1.67%58%+2.55%+11.03% 2014-10.70% 200326no clear pattern
July+0.31%-0.23%46%-1.25%+12.19% 2020-10.24% 202626no clear pattern
August+0.56%-0.28%42%-0.47%+7.76% 2006-6.67% 201726no clear pattern
September+0.72%+1.93%65%+1.29%+7.06% 2005-14.31% 201526no clear pattern
October+2.80%+2.22%68%+3.61%+13.06% 2003-5.21% 200825strong
November+0.32%-0.02%48%+1.28%+14.00% 2002-8.89% 202525no clear pattern
December+1.62%+2.52%84%+3.79%+7.62% 2025-24.31% 200325weak

Returns from the last close of the previous month to the last close of the month. Source: Yahoo Finance (LE=F). Download monthly data (CSV).

What drives Live cattle

Sell in May for Live cattle

From 2002 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +4.01% and the May to October half +2.22%. The winter half did better in 54% of 24 years. Compare all markets.

Year by year

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
20261.73.5-0.46.4-4.04.0-10.2-4.8-0.9
20255.5-3.45.13.8-0.14.80.86.2-4.22.0-8.97.6
20242.13.80.50.0-1.96.6-3.3-0.7-1.15.0-2.63.1
20232.65.50.54.0-3.57.3-1.90.92.5-0.2-7.01.6
20220.50.7-0.81.8-8.05.7-1.13.71.22.44.31.1
20211.9-1.77.0-4.1-0.15.7-0.3-2.61.45.66.72.2
2020-2.7-7.2-9.7-11.610.8-8.112.21.63.9-2.44.02.5
20190.04.1-3.3-1.6-12.31.9-3.3-1.8-0.46.88.52.9
20180.73.0-10.88.8-15.11.90.6-0.86.22.10.96.7
2017-2.99.5-5.315.1-9.8-4.3-6.0-6.74.410.4-0.52.6
2016-0.43.1-4.7-7.4-1.6-0.9-5.8-1.0-11.74.37.47.5
2015-6.52.02.1-1.1-4.5-2.9-1.4-0.1-14.311.7-6.64.4
20145.37.3-4.0-0.0-5.511.03.2-1.32.95.6-0.4-1.9
2013-1.80.30.7-0.4-5.5-2.62.81.04.25.2-0.80.8
20121.62.2-5.6-1.4-1.4-0.52.0-0.73.43.8-0.02.5
20111.02.88.5-3.7-11.48.7-0.11.46.9-1.91.51.1

Monthly change in percent. Most recent years at the top.

Latest insights on Live cattle

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Questions

What is the best month for Live cattle?

Since 2001, October has had the highest average move for Live cattle at +2.80%, rising in 68% of 25 years. December has the highest share of positive years (84%).

What is the worst month for Live cattle?

May has had the weakest average move at -3.75%, rising in 23% of 26 years.

How does Live cattle usually do in October?

Live cattle has averaged +2.80% in October (median +2.22%), rising in 68% of 25 years. We rate the pattern as strong.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.