Microsoft: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, Microsoft has averaged +4.89% and risen in 65% of 40 years (1986 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as strong.
Last close 529.30 on October 6, 2026: +0.78% on the day, +10.14% this year, +3.20% so far in October.
Technicals
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +5.07% | +3.07% | 65% | +1.91% | +51.55% | -16.17% | 40 | moderate |
| February | -0.76% | -0.64% | 45% | -0.90% | +13.62% | -16.24% | 40 | no clear pattern |
| March | +2.88% | +2.23% | 65% | +1.37% | +26.06% | -16.18% | 40 | moderate |
| April | +3.54% | +4.74% | 68% | +4.23% | +32.52% | -34.35% | 41 | strong |
| May | +3.13% | +2.60% | 66% | +4.50% | +25.86% | -15.14% | 41 | strong |
| June | +1.87% | +1.92% | 56% | +2.31% | +27.87% | -17.15% | 41 | no clear pattern |
| July | +0.31% | +0.74% | 54% | +5.41% | +24.58% | -15.91% | 41 | no clear pattern |
| August | +1.79% | +2.21% | 61% | +2.31% | +26.33% | -15.97% | 41 | weak |
| September | +0.65% | +1.11% | 59% | -1.92% | +16.60% | -13.61% | 41 | no clear pattern |
| October | +4.89% | +4.05% | 65% | +2.73% | +37.17% | -24.91% | 40 | strong |
| November | +2.89% | +3.77% | 63% | +4.12% | +28.39% | -16.70% | 40 | moderate |
| December | +1.54% | +1.13% | 57% | -0.28% | +28.23% | -24.40% | 40 | no clear pattern |
What drives Microsoft
- Azure cloud growth and AI infrastructure spending, reported quarterly with a fiscal year ending in June.
- Enterprise IT budgets, which are often set in the fourth calendar quarter.
Sell in May for Microsoft
From 1987 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +16.95% and the May to October half +11.33%. The winter half did better in 44% of 39 years. Compare all markets.
How Microsoft reacts to its earnings
Across 67 results announcements since 2010, Microsoft moved +0.73% on average over the two sessions around the release, rising 61% of the time. The typical move, up or down, was 3.82%, and the average move relative to the S&P 500 was +0.77%. The largest was +14.68% on July 29, 2026.
| Results filed | Two-day move | Versus S&P 500 | 20 days later |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 29, 2026 | +14.68% | +14.56% | +26.43% |
| April 29, 2026 | -5.00% | -5.98% | -0.31% |
| January 28, 2026 | -9.80% | -9.66% | -16.22% |
| October 29, 2025 | -3.01% | -2.02% | -10.27% |
| July 30, 2025 | +4.08% | +4.57% | -0.97% |
| April 30, 2025 | +7.96% | +7.18% | +16.62% |
| January 29, 2025 | -7.20% | -7.26% | -12.05% |
| October 30, 2024 | -5.93% | -3.74% | -1.88% |
| July 30, 2024 | -1.96% | -3.04% | -2.85% |
| April 25, 2024 | -0.67% | -1.23% | +4.57% |
| January 30, 2024 | -2.96% | -1.29% | -0.30% |
| October 24, 2023 | +3.45% | +4.17% | +13.51% |
Year by year
Latest insights on Microsoft
Questions
What is the best month for Microsoft?
Since 1986, January has had the highest average move for Microsoft at +5.07%, rising in 65% of 40 years. April has the highest share of positive years (68%).
What is the worst month for Microsoft?
February has had the weakest average move at -0.76%, rising in 45% of 40 years.
How does Microsoft usually do in October?
Microsoft has averaged +4.89% in October (median +4.05%), rising in 65% of 40 years. We rate the pattern as strong.
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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.