Walmart: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, Walmart has averaged +1.40% and risen in 59% of 54 years (1972 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as no clear pattern.
Last close 107.20 on October 6, 2026: +2.03% on the day, -3.17% this year, +3.16% so far in October.
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +2.31% | +1.63% | 57% | +1.97% | +57.90% | -20.80% | 54 | no clear pattern |
| February | +0.65% | +0.50% | 57% | -0.97% | +16.33% | -15.56% | 54 | no clear pattern |
| March | +3.60% | +3.83% | 69% | +1.62% | +41.83% | -26.61% | 54 | strong |
| April | +1.28% | +2.23% | 56% | +3.98% | +24.00% | -15.75% | 54 | no clear pattern |
| May | +2.39% | +1.78% | 65% | -1.44% | +22.63% | -15.62% | 54 | moderate |
| June | +2.33% | +1.29% | 57% | +0.62% | +16.21% | -31.25% | 54 | weak |
| July | +2.68% | +1.59% | 65% | +2.90% | +58.68% | -12.73% | 54 | moderate |
| August | +1.12% | +1.02% | 54% | +3.18% | +32.02% | -15.38% | 54 | no clear pattern |
| September | +0.01% | +0.76% | 56% | +0.29% | +13.15% | -14.13% | 55 | no clear pattern |
| October | +1.40% | +1.22% | 59% | +3.24% | +26.43% | -27.06% | 54 | no clear pattern |
| November | +3.61% | +5.61% | 70% | +3.96% | +20.70% | -34.04% | 54 | strong |
| December | -0.20% | -0.41% | 48% | -1.10% | +20.56% | -13.71% | 54 | no clear pattern |
What drives Walmart
- US consumer health, food inflation and the holiday season; fiscal year ends in January.
- Tariffs on imported goods and wage costs.
Sell in May for Walmart
From 1973 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +10.68% and the May to October half +10.27%. The winter half did better in 49% of 53 years. Compare all markets.
How Walmart reacts to its earnings
Across 67 results announcements since 2010, Walmart moved -0.68% on average over the two sessions around the release, rising 39% of the time. The typical move, up or down, was 3.99%, and the average move relative to the S&P 500 was -0.52%. The largest was -17.39% on May 17, 2022.
| Results filed | Two-day move | Versus S&P 500 | 20 days later |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 20, 2026 | -9.06% | -8.62% | -6.40% |
| May 21, 2026 | -8.09% | -8.63% | -10.45% |
| February 19, 2026 | -2.87% | -3.28% | -4.37% |
| November 20, 2025 | +4.68% | +5.27% | +13.90% |
| August 21, 2025 | -5.60% | -6.71% | -0.23% |
| May 15, 2025 | +1.46% | +0.34% | -2.47% |
| February 20, 2025 | -8.87% | -6.74% | -17.49% |
| November 19, 2024 | +3.69% | +3.29% | +11.51% |
| August 15, 2024 | +7.28% | +5.46% | +17.72% |
| May 16, 2024 | +8.06% | +8.15% | +12.02% |
| February 20, 2024 | +1.96% | +2.43% | +7.56% |
| November 16, 2023 | -8.50% | -8.75% | -9.70% |
Year by year
Latest insights on Walmart
Questions
What is the best month for Walmart?
Since 1972, November has had the highest average move for Walmart at +3.61%, rising in 70% of 54 years. November has the highest share of positive years (70%).
What is the worst month for Walmart?
December has had the weakest average move at -0.20%, rising in 48% of 54 years.
How does Walmart usually do in October?
Walmart has averaged +1.40% in October (median +1.22%), rising in 59% of 54 years. We rate the pattern as no clear pattern.
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