Heating oil (ULSD): seasonality, event history and insights
In October, Heating oil (ULSD) has averaged -0.78% and risen in 42% of 26 years (2000 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as no clear pattern.
Last close 4.5694 on October 6, 2026: +0.53% on the day, +115.48% this year, -7.82% so far in October.
Technicals
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +2.49% | +3.49% | 62% | +5.37% | +29.00% | -19.91% | 26 | weak |
| February | +3.26% | +2.57% | 58% | -0.56% | +36.33% | -12.92% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| March | +1.22% | -1.18% | 46% | +3.29% | +55.88% | -36.91% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| April | +1.65% | +2.18% | 62% | -0.94% | +29.54% | -27.69% | 26 | weak |
| May | -0.26% | -1.34% | 38% | -1.23% | +31.81% | -14.99% | 26 | weak |
| June | +3.14% | +3.06% | 69% | +5.02% | +22.12% | -8.60% | 26 | strong |
| July | +1.97% | +1.95% | 65% | +5.33% | +24.26% | -16.04% | 26 | weak |
| August | +2.50% | +0.96% | 50% | +0.45% | +25.47% | -7.47% | 26 | weak |
| September | +0.52% | +0.82% | 54% | +2.34% | +25.31% | -13.80% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| October | -0.78% | -0.97% | 42% | +1.93% | +24.40% | -29.94% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| November | -2.12% | -0.79% | 46% | -3.52% | +25.40% | -19.76% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| December | -0.41% | +2.21% | 58% | +2.59% | +14.32% | -17.67% | 26 | no clear pattern |
What drives Heating oil (ULSD)
- Diesel and heating oil demand rises into the northern winter; refinery outages tighten supply.
- Freight and agricultural activity add demand in harvest season.
Sell in May for Heating oil (ULSD)
From 2001 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +4.88% and the May to October half +6.77%. The winter half did better in 48% of 25 years. Compare all markets.
How Heating oil (ULSD) reacted to events
Average move from the close before each event. Day 1 is the close on the event day.
| Event | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil supply cuts (OPEC+ and disruptions) | 5 | +4.88% | +5.49% | +0.86% | 60% |
Year by year
Latest insights on Heating oil (ULSD)
Questions
What is the best month for Heating oil (ULSD)?
Since 2000, February has had the highest average move for Heating oil (ULSD) at +3.26%, rising in 58% of 26 years. June has the highest share of positive years (69%).
What is the worst month for Heating oil (ULSD)?
November has had the weakest average move at -2.12%, rising in 46% of 26 years.
How does Heating oil (ULSD) usually do in October?
Heating oil (ULSD) has averaged -0.78% in October (median -0.97%), rising in 42% of 26 years. We rate the pattern as no clear pattern.
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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.