Shell: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, Shell has averaged +1.60% and risen in 70% of 30 years (1996 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as strong.
Last close 3,651.00 on October 6, 2026: +0.54% on the day, +33.28% this year, +2.28% so far in October.
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | -1.27% | -1.69% | 40% | +1.35% | +16.33% | -15.16% | 30 | no clear pattern |
| February | +0.67% | +1.13% | 60% | +0.09% | +11.59% | -16.68% | 30 | weak |
| March | +1.90% | +2.29% | 63% | +1.27% | +16.58% | -14.59% | 30 | moderate |
| April | +1.27% | +1.95% | 60% | -0.21% | +16.75% | -13.61% | 30 | weak |
| May | +0.98% | +0.94% | 60% | -0.57% | +17.30% | -10.95% | 30 | no clear pattern |
| June | +0.78% | +1.02% | 57% | +0.64% | +23.53% | -10.20% | 30 | no clear pattern |
| July | -2.31% | +0.79% | 57% | +1.69% | +15.36% | -68.38% | 30 | no clear pattern |
| August | -1.37% | -0.55% | 37% | -1.82% | +8.86% | -12.61% | 30 | weak |
| September | -0.73% | -1.90% | 45% | +1.91% | +15.60% | -15.77% | 31 | no clear pattern |
| October | +1.60% | +2.44% | 70% | +2.44% | +10.30% | -10.09% | 30 | strong |
| November | -0.09% | -0.85% | 30% | +1.28% | +31.69% | -6.60% | 30 | weak |
| December | +1.58% | +0.90% | 63% | +1.11% | +10.69% | -7.12% | 30 | moderate |
What drives Shell
- Oil and LNG prices and trading results; publishes a quarterly update note before earnings.
- Buyback pace and capital discipline.
Sell in May for Shell
From 1997 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +3.47% and the May to October half -1.80%. The winter half did better in 62% of 29 years. Compare all markets.
How Shell reacted to events
Average move from the close before each event. Day 1 is the close on the event day.
| Event | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil supply cuts (OPEC+ and disruptions) | 5 | +1.54% | -0.01% | +1.64% | 80% |
Year by year
Latest insights on Shell
Brent at $102.31: a Hormuz risk premium meets a seasonally weak window
OPEC+ held output steady and the Brent-WTI spread widened above $11. Autumn refinery maintenance usually softens crude demand.
Questions
What is the best month for Shell?
Since 1996, March has had the highest average move for Shell at +1.90%, rising in 63% of 30 years. October has the highest share of positive years (70%).
What is the worst month for Shell?
July has had the weakest average move at -2.31%, rising in 57% of 30 years.
How does Shell usually do in October?
Shell has averaged +1.60% in October (median +2.44%), rising in 70% of 30 years. We rate the pattern as strong.
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Build a free watchlistNot investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.