Exxon Mobil: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, Exxon Mobil has averaged +1.57% and risen in 59% of 64 years (1962 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as weak.
Last close 164.48 on October 6, 2026: +0.29% on the day, +39.42% this year, +1.06% so far in October.
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +1.45% | +0.16% | 50% | +5.15% | +24.14% | -10.98% | 64 | weak |
| February | +0.76% | +0.17% | 51% | +1.80% | +23.31% | -16.00% | 65 | no clear pattern |
| March | +1.50% | +2.28% | 63% | +1.25% | +11.25% | -26.19% | 65 | moderate |
| April | +2.51% | +1.75% | 66% | +2.07% | +22.39% | -11.18% | 65 | strong |
| May | +0.44% | +0.35% | 51% | -0.93% | +13.76% | -12.91% | 65 | no clear pattern |
| June | +0.49% | +0.48% | 54% | +0.87% | +8.83% | -10.79% | 65 | no clear pattern |
| July | +1.13% | +1.55% | 60% | +1.35% | +15.07% | -10.17% | 65 | moderate |
| August | +0.37% | +0.04% | 51% | -0.63% | +14.99% | -8.71% | 65 | no clear pattern |
| September | +0.41% | -0.36% | 48% | +0.66% | +9.15% | -14.05% | 65 | no clear pattern |
| October | +1.57% | +1.46% | 59% | +0.92% | +26.92% | -12.34% | 64 | weak |
| November | +1.62% | +0.99% | 59% | +2.65% | +19.71% | -12.76% | 64 | moderate |
| December | +1.21% | +1.54% | 69% | -0.62% | +13.26% | -14.23% | 64 | strong |
What drives Exxon Mobil
- Oil and natural gas prices drive upstream earnings; refining margins matter for the downstream business.
- OPEC+ decisions and geopolitical supply risk feed through quickly.
Sell in May for Exxon Mobil
From 1963 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +9.06% and the May to October half +4.37%. The winter half did better in 59% of 63 years. Compare all markets.
How Exxon Mobil reacted to events
Average move from the close before each event. Day 1 is the close on the event day.
| Event | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil supply cuts (OPEC+ and disruptions) | 5 | +2.44% | +1.74% | +5.84% | 80% |
How Exxon Mobil reacts to its earnings
Across 60 results announcements since 2010, Exxon Mobil moved -0.50% on average over the two sessions around the release, rising 43% of the time. The typical move, up or down, was 2.20%, and the average move relative to the S&P 500 was -0.65%. The largest was -6.27% on January 31, 2020.
| Results filed | Two-day move | Versus S&P 500 | 20 days later |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | -0.41% | -0.30% | -2.55% |
| January 30, 2026 | -1.50% | -1.61% | +10.49% |
| October 31, 2025 | -0.81% | -1.24% | +2.58% |
| August 1, 2025 | -3.82% | -3.67% | +3.33% |
| May 2, 2025 | -2.37% | -3.20% | -1.68% |
| January 31, 2025 | -2.26% | -1.00% | -0.77% |
| November 1, 2024 | +1.57% | +1.44% | +1.75% |
| August 2, 2024 | -1.86% | +2.92% | +1.66% |
| April 26, 2024 | -1.39% | -2.73% | -5.76% |
| February 2, 2024 | -0.82% | -1.57% | +2.87% |
| October 27, 2023 | -1.60% | -2.32% | -2.50% |
| July 28, 2023 | +1.73% | +0.59% | +3.53% |
Year by year
Latest insights on Exxon Mobil
Brent at $102.31: a Hormuz risk premium meets a seasonally weak window
OPEC+ held output steady and the Brent-WTI spread widened above $11. Autumn refinery maintenance usually softens crude demand.
Questions
What is the best month for Exxon Mobil?
Since 1962, April has had the highest average move for Exxon Mobil at +2.51%, rising in 66% of 65 years. December has the highest share of positive years (69%).
What is the worst month for Exxon Mobil?
August has had the weakest average move at +0.37%, rising in 51% of 65 years.
How does Exxon Mobil usually do in October?
Exxon Mobil has averaged +1.57% in October (median +1.46%), rising in 59% of 64 years. We rate the pattern as weak.
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